Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 3rd day of free agency
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- Analysis and projections from 1st day of free agency
Let's look at the latest wave of notable skill-position signings - and what they mean for fantasy owners.
Washington signs WR Curtis SamuelContract: 3 years, $34.5 million
Sometimes a free agent who elects to sign with the wrong team can let you down, but other times things fall into place like they're following a script.
Samuel landing in Washington reunites him with former coach Ron Rivera and former college teammate Terry McLaurin.
The 24-year-old joins an offense filled with speed at the skill positions, as he, McLaurin, and Antonio Gibson all clocked in at 4.39 seconds or faster in the 40-yard dash.
Samuel's new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fan-favorite whose aggressive style will boost the fantasy outlooks for everyone in Washington.
And don't sleep on this passing attack, which quietly ranked ninth in pass attempts in 2020 - 51 more throws than Samuel's Panthers. If the Ohio State product can slightly improve on the target share he had in Carolina, we could see him push for 115-plus looks with this new opportunity - which would be a career-high. Running back J.D. McKissic accounted for 110 of Washington's targets last year, so redirecting a big chunk of those shouldn't be a problem.
Samuel is also coming off a campaign where he led all NFL receivers with 41 rushing attempts, which he turned into 200 yards and two scores on the ground.
The native New Yorker's arrival will make the offense more dynamic while giving him a chance to take his production to the next level. A top-24 fantasy season is within Samuel's range of outcomes, but he's more likely to settle in as a weekly WR3.
Samuel's 2021 projection (16 games): 84 receptions, 932 receiving yards, 4 TDs
22 carries, 149 rushing yards, 2 TDs
Contract: 1 year, $7 million
With the two big tight end prizes both going to the Patriots, Everett didn't take long to get scooped up himself.
Everett will replace the retiring Greg Olsen in Seattle and give the Seahawks a true starting option - instead of the tight end by committee approach they've leaned on recently.
Free from a two-man committee of his own with the Rams, the soon-to-be 27-year-old will try to become the next tight end to break out in their late twenties following the recent success of guys like Darren Waller, Logan Thomas, and Robert Tonyan.
As we covered in my recent article on three free agents ready to become stars, Everett has increased his targets, receptions, and yards in each of his four campaigns, and 2020 was the first season when he saw the field on over 50% of the Rams' offensive snaps.
As long as Seattle doesn't completely revert to its run-heavy ways, it wouldn't be shocking to see Everett outproduce the tight ends who got paid more than him in free agency - Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.
Everett's 2021 projection (16 games): 45 receptions, 472 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Cardinals sign WR A.J. GreenContract: 1 year, $8 million
No one wants to be a buzzkill when it comes to free-agent signings, but it's hard to get overly excited about the veteran wideouts who have agreed to new deals over the last few days.
Most of the big-name free agents remain on the market, like Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Curtis Samuel. And while former stars Emmanuel Sanders, Marvin Jones, and John Brown make for savvy real-life pickups, their days of being consistent fantasy starters are over.
Green is the latest member to join that group after finding a home as the likely Larry Fitzgerald replacement in Arizona. We still don't know if Fitzgerald is retiring, but this move makes it seem like it's a possibility.
Unfortunately for Green, Fitzgerald hasn't been a fantasy factor over the last several seasons. With DeAndre Hopkins now soaking up targets as the dominant No. 1 option, Green will become a role player for the Cardinals - something his declining skill set should still allow.
The longtime Bengal is coming off his worst campaign as a pro at age 32, featuring career lows in yards per game (32.7), yards per catch (11.1), touchdowns (2), and catch rate (45.2). Though he suited up for all 16 games in 2020, it's been three years since we've seen Green post a 1,000-yard season due to various injuries.
Don't go chasing the promise of Green finding the fountain of youth while playing with Kyler Murray in the desert ... it's not going to happen. Outside of a dart throw in best ball leagues, he'll be a desperation add off the waiver wire in redraft.
Green's 2021 projection (16 games): 31 receptions, 341 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Raiders sign WR John BrownContract: 1 year, $5.5 million
Brown is just one season removed from a 1,000-yard campaign, and injuries played a big part in his underwhelming 2020 stat line.
The problem for him is the team he's joining. The Raiders finished 31st in targets thrown to receivers last year and that's a number that should stay near the bottom of the league as long as tight end Darren Waller is healthy.
Brown's best seasons have come when he's been around the 100-target mark and there's little evidence to suggest he'll come close to that while catching passes from Derek Carr. No wideout saw more than 82 targets last year and the massive turnover on Vegas' offensive line could prevent Carr from having time to let players get open downfield.
Adding a veteran like Brown to a young receiving corps that just lost Nelson Agholor to free agency is a smart move, but using a roster spot on him in fantasy is unlikely to make a major impact on your team's chances of winning.
If you're looking to invest in Vegas' passing attack, taking a shot on sophomores Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards rebounding after disappointing rookie efforts is still the highest-upside play.
Brown's 2021 projection (15 games): 38 receptions, 521 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Titans keep TE Anthony FirkserContract: 1 year
Unlike the veteran wideouts over 30 years old who are being overvalued in this free-agent group, 26-year-old tight end Anthony Firkser has been an underrated weapon in the Titans' offense for a while now.
The volume simply hasn't been there for Firkser to explode on the fantasy scene, but this is setting up to be his year after all four of Tennessee's tight ends hit free agency and only Firkser and Geoff Swaim were re-signed.
Even though Firkser's numbers improved in 2020, resulting in 53 targets, 39 receptions, 387 yards, and one touchdown, he only played over 50% of the snaps in one game. it's a small sample size, but his stat line in that contest was 8-113-1.
He's now positioned to be Tennessee's starter in Week 1, and with Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis no longer on the roster - vacating 157 targets - Firkser should produce a career year. He'll be in the conversation as a TE2 with the upside to be this year's breakout tight end.
Firkser's 2021 projection (16 games): 48 receptions, 504 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Colts keep RB Marlon MackContract: 1 year, $2 million
A 25-year-old running back with a 1,000-yard season on his resume would normally be a coveted prize in free agency. Unfortunately for Mack, he's recovering from a torn Achilles that could threaten his effectiveness moving forward.
With Jonathan Taylor locked in as the Colts' lead back and the relatively low cost of Mack's new deal, this is a no-risk move for Indy's front office. However, until we see him healthy and back to full speed, fantasy managers should be cautious about viewing Mack as a high-end backup.
Mack's 2021 projection (16 games): 76 carries, 319 rushing yards, 1 TD
9 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Contract: 2 years, $7.5 million
Just when you think the Lions are about to clear the path for D'Andre Swift to reach his ceiling in fantasy, Detroit decides to replace one departing veteran running back with another.
Adrian Peterson spent the first half of last season stealing work from Swift and now Williams comes in as potentially an even bigger threat to touches. At least Peterson was limited as a pass-catcher. That's not the case with Williams - a fact Aaron Jones managers know well.
Williams routinely played around 50% of the Packers' snaps and was often used on receiving downs - hauling in 70 balls over the last two seasons.
This doesn't mean that you should shy away from Swift, the promising sophomore is still an RB2 in fantasy. However, on an offense that could struggle with Jared Goff taking over for Matthew Stafford, Swift won't have the touchdown upside.
This is also a sign the club is not willing to trust Kerryon Johnson as Swift's immediate backup, further burying him down the depth chart.
Williams' 2021 projection (16 games): 83 carries, 341 rushing yards, 3 TDs
30 receptions, 219 receiving yards, 1 TD
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