How many people can you see and still avoid COVID-19? This new risk assessment is sobering as another lockdown lingers

Ontario is taking new strides to contain the spread of COVID-19 but there are still plenty of potential places where people could pick up the virus.

While provincial guidelines mandate that indoor gatherings in homes be limited to household members (as well as single people who have partnered with one household), new rules that take effect Saturday will still allow weddings, funerals and religious gatherings, as long as they are limited to 15 per cent capacity indoors.

That's not all. All stores across Ontario can stay open, including big-box retailers, as long as they follow certain capacity limits.

So depending on how big the place is, you could still find yourself indoors with lots of people. And that's where things could get risky.

New calculations by biostatistician and consultant Ryan Imgrund show how many people you would have to encounter in the next month to have a 50 per cent chance of exposure to COVID-19. The data, broken down by public health unit, is sobering.

In the traditional hot spot of Toronto, you have a 50 per cent chance of exposure to COVID-19 if you encounter 56 people in the next month, according to Imgrund's calculations. In Peel, you have a 50 per cent chance of exposure if you encounter 63 people in the next month, while in York it's 65 people, and in Durham it's 74 people.

Imgrund said transmission always increases when statutory holidays and gatherings occur.

The Easter long weekend is the prime time for this. Stick to only essential interactions," he said. The worst thing you can do is gather indoors, unmasked, with other people for prolonged periods of time. When you do, your chance of catching COVID-19 will be close to your chance of encountering someone with it."