NHL futures odds: Best value bets to finish 1st in each division
With a month left in the NHL season, division races are heating up as teams look to secure top spot and home-ice advantage through to the semifinals.
Let's take a look at the division markets and see where the value is heading into the home stretch.
Central Division| TEAM | ODDS | PTS | GR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | +125 | 55 | 18 |
| Lightning | +125 | 54 | 17 |
| Panthers | +350 | 56 | 16 |
As someone who bet the Hurricanes to win the Central Division at +400 before the season, it's no secret how I want to see this play out. I'm approaching this final month with cautious optimism.
But before we get into the race between the Hurricanes and Lightning, let me tell you why the Panthers won't win the division: nine of their 16 remaining games are against Carolina, Tampa, and Dallas - a tough ask without star defenseman Aaron Ekblad. They don't play Detroit again, either, while their four remaining games against the Predators and Blackhawks are on the road. As good as Florida's been, I can't trust it to win the Central under these circumstances.
That leaves us with Carolina and Tampa jockeying for first place and the much friendlier first-round matchup that comes with it. The Hurricanes hold the edge based on current standings, and they also come out on top when you comb through the numbers: they've been better at five-on-five and are stronger on special teams. But the biggest advantage they have comes in net.
The Lightning have been really cautious not to overwork Andrei Vasilevskiy - he hasn't made more than three consecutive starts since the first week of February - and while that will help keep him fresh for playoffs, it'll hurt them in the division race. Tampa has received below replacement-level goaltending from the backup position and is just 3-5-1 without Vasilevskiy between the pipes - a problem the Hurricanes don't have given their embarrassment of riches in goal.
Carolina also has the added benefit of playing its two remaining head-to-head meetings with the Lightning on back-to-back nights, meaning it'll see Tampa's backup of choice in one of those games. It's part of a daunting stretch for the Lightning, who play the Hurricanes and Panthers four times in a six-day span. I'm fading the defending Cup champions in the Central Division race.
Best value: Hurricanes (+125)
East Division| TEAM | ODDS | PTS | GR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | +135 | 54 | 17 |
| Capitals | +220 | 54 | 17 |
| Bruins | +450 | 46 | 20 |
| Penguins | +450 | 50 | 17 |
Arguably the most wide-open division race, there's a legitimate case to be made for all four of these teams to finish atop the East Division. Adding Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac has vaulted the Islanders into the role of favorites, and understandably so. They boast the division's best goal differential (plus-28) and rank third in the league in expected goal share at five-on-five, while none of the Capitals, Bruins, or Penguins crack the top 14.
However, special teams have been an issue for the Islanders. They rank 22nd on the power play and 11th on the penalty kill, both areas where the Capitals and Bruins excel. The Penguins aren't particularly great at five-on-five or special teams, but their remaining schedule is really enticing - hardly the case for Barry Trotz's team.
Of the Isles' 17 remaining games, 11 are against the Capitals, Bruins, and Rangers. They play three times at TD Garden, but it's the five games against the surging Rangers that have me most concerned - they're the division's next-best five-on-five team after the Isles and are playing excellent hockey right now as they push for a playoff spot. I think the Islanders are the division's best team, but the schedule is enough to scare me off, given the short price.
It's also enough to scare me off Washington, which plays 15 of its remaining 17 games against the division's top six, including seven versus the Islanders and Bruins. The Penguins have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule, with nine of 17 coming against the Devils and Sabres. That being said, the Devils are hardly pushovers - they've taken two of three against Pittsburgh this season - and the Pens just don't boast good enough underlying numbers to truly trust them down the stretch.
That leaves us with the Bruins. Tuukka Rask, who's been out since March 7, is back skating with the team, while they've found a strong insurance policy in prospect Jeremy Swayman. Boston is also expected to make a splash at the deadline, strengthening the roster ahead of a negotiable final stretch. Five of the Bruins' seven remaining games against the Isles and Caps are on home ice, while they still play six more times against the hapless Sabres. Things are setting up nicely for the Bruins, who are certainly worth a flier in this market at their current price.
Best value: Bruins (+450)
North Division| TEAM | ODDS | PTS | GR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -550 | 57 | 16 |
| Oilers | +1000 | 50 | 16 |
| Canadiens | +1000 | 43 | 20 |
| Jets | +1000 | 49 | 17 |
Realistically speaking, no one is catching the Leafs in the North Division. Toronto has built a seven-point cushion at the summit and has been playing excellent hockey. I've also heard rumblings that Jack Campbell may never lose another game in his professional career, but I can neither confirm nor deny.
You're not going to lay -550 on the Leafs either, of course. It looks like free money, but there's still a little over a month of the season to play, and, as much as I hate to even say it, we've seen COVID-19 rip through a handful of teams already this season.
If you're looking for one club that can still possibly catch the Leafs, my money would be on Winnipeg. The Canadiens, despite a number of games in hand, have too much ground to make up amidst such a congested schedule, while the Oilers only have one game left against a Senators team they're 8-0-0 against this year - they're barely above .500 (16-14-2) versus the rest of the division.
The Jets, though, have a bit of a case here, assuming Blake Wheeler doesn't miss an extended period. They still play the Senators four times and Canucks twice - who knows what state they'll be in. They also somewhat control their own destiny because they have four games remaining against Toronto, with three of those coming in Winnipeg. If they can rattle off six points from those - a big if, of course - then this race would suddenly become very interesting.
Best value: Jets (+1000)
West Division| TEAM | ODDS | PTS | GR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | -185 | 56 | 17 |
| Golden Knights | +230 | 52 | 18 |
| Wild | +650 | 50 | 18 |
Much like in the North, it's hard to look away from the chalk in the West. After dealing with a handful of injuries early in the year, the Avalanche are healthy and absolutely steamrolling teams right now. They rank first in the NHL in expected goal share (60.66%) and Corsi For percentage (59.32%), a full three percentage points higher than the next-best team. Scary, right? It's only the tip of the iceberg.
Over the last month - dating back to March 9 - the Avalanche have posted an outrageous 66.55 xGF%. They've outscored teams 70-38 over that span, with their actual goals percentage still lower than their expected goals percentage. To put it in simpler terms: this is an incredible hockey team.
Of Colorado's 17 games remaining, 14 are against the bottom four teams in the division, which poses an even bigger problem for Vegas and Minnesota. The Wild have the toughest remaining schedule of the three, with seven contests left against a Blues team that is too talented not to make a late-season push, leaving Vegas with the best chance to catch the Avalanche.
The Knights have four games remaining against the Avs and Wild and also play the Coyotes and Blues - two teams desperately fighting for a playoff spot - a combined six times. Even if the Avalanche lose both their remaining head-to-head meetings with Vegas, it's hard to see them dropping enough points elsewhere to be caught for the West Division crown. It's also worth noting just how important first place in the West is for Colorado, as it would mean avoiding the likes of Vegas and Minnesota in the first round.
Best value: Avalanche (-185)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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