COVID infections hit heights never seen before in Hamilton

COVID-19 infections have now well surpassed the height of the second wave in Hamilton and are predicted to climb for at least two more weeks.

We are very much at a point in this pandemic that we've never been at before," medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said at a Board of Health meeting Monday. It's a very sombre and sober time."

Hamilton is on track for the worst-case scenario predicted by Scarsin Forecasting of roughly 230 cases a day by the beginning of May. Two better case scenarios are now beyond reach.

The seven-day average of new daily infections is already at 175 and rising, with 214 new cases reported Monday.

Other key metrics are surging, including the weekly incidence rate per 100,000 population which jumped to 205 Monday from 181 Friday and 129 on April 9.

The number of tests coming back positive for COVID was 7.2 per cent Monday from 5.6 per cent Friday and 4.9 per cent April 9.

This is the highest our activity levels have been to date," said public health epidemiologist Stephanie Hughes.

She said the third wave of the pandemic officially overtook the second in Hamilton on April 14.

For the most part, the pre-peak phase has been worse in wave three with more outbreaks and hospitalizations despite being half as long - from Feb. 17 to April 16 and counting - compared to the second wave's Sept. 1 to Dec. 31.

The third wave has also seen drastic shifts, including:

• Nearly two-thirds of Hamilton's recent cases are variants;

• Outbreaks are now concentrated in schools, daycares and workplaces instead of hospitals and seniors' homes;

• Increasing numbers of younger people are hospitalized with those age 80 and over no longer being the majority;

• More than 60 per cent of outbreaks are now linked to variants.

While the number of deaths is less so far, Hughes said that is likely due to the difference in time spans between the two waves.

The city reported two COVID deaths Monday. The first death was a senior age 80 and over and the second was a resident in their 60s.

Of the city's 346 pandemic deaths, more than 67 per cent have been age 80 and over compared to 10 per cent for those in their 60s.

Richardson said Hamilton's ICUs - like many across the province - are close to being overwhelmed as they cared for 151 COVID patients Monday.

People (are) working through very difficult conditions," she said. Across the province everyone is trying to help with that and across the country ... we are trying to get health-care workers to help us care for those who are sick due to COVID-19."

Public health is also overburdened, with the number of newly reported cases reached within one day dropping to 66 per cent April 16 compared to 72 per cent on April 9.

This is driven by the total numbers," she said. We really have a certain number of cases we can manage at our maximum."

The city is reporting 39 ongoing outbreaks including two more declared Sunday at Friends of Jesus Christ Ministries of Greater Hamilton and Burlington, where four parishioners from the church have tested positive, and Hamilton General Hospital's 5S unit where three patients are infected.

A large workplace outbreak at Connon Nurseries in Waterdown is now up to 31 cases, while Aryzta Oakrun Farm Bakery in Ancaster has 25 staff infected.

Heritage Green Nursing Home in Stoney Creek has also seen infections rise to three residents and four staff while the outbreak at Macassa Lodge has climbed to one resident and two staff.

Outbreaks have been declared over at Sts. Peter and Paul Catholic Elementary School, The Meadowlands Retirement Residence and at the Charlton Campus of St. Joseph's Healthcare on general internal medicine unit CTU-West.

Forecasting done for the city by Scarsin and updated Monday at Board of Health continues to predict Hamilton will be in lockdown until the end of June with daily infections still at 50 to 70 cases a day at that time.

Its forecast also assumes students will not return to the classroom this school year and will instead remain on remote learning.

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com