NFL draft total over/unders: Best bets for top RBs

With so much offensive talent at the top of the NFL draft, it's easy to forget about the running back position. After all, most front offices seemingly have forgotten about it - only five running backs have been taken in the first round over the last three years.

But if we ignore prior trends when examining the 2021 NFL Draft, there could realistically be a team set to pick in the middle of the first round that believes it's one Najee Harris or Travis Etienne away from a complete roster.

The market doesn't expect it. Harris is favored to go off the board first with a draft spot of 25.5 and the over a chalky -180. But all it takes is one domino to fall - or one franchise to get desperate - to shake up the running back market.

Oddsmakers have set draft totals for a handful of top prospects, so let's dive into the prices and hunt for some value.

Najee Harris (Alabama) - 25.5

Over: -180
Under: +150

There's been some buzz linking Harris to both the Dolphins at No. 18 and the Steelers at No. 24. The Jets - who make their second first-round pick at No. 23 - are also in the market for a running back, though Etienne seems the best fit for that system.

Pittsburgh is the most intriguing team here. The franchise has exhausted multiple options at running back over the last few years, to no avail. But while it's a gaping need for the Steelers heading into 2021, they've gone defense in the first round seven years straight.

Harris totaled 30 touchdowns and put up nearly 1,900 scrimmage yards for the nation's top program at Alabama, so he should be the first back off the board. But considering how disinterested teams have been on Day 1 - a club hasn't selected a running back in the first 23 picks in two straight years - it's hard to count on him going early.

Pick: Over

Travis Etienne (Clemson) - 33.5

Over: +100
Under: -124

If we're going over the total on Harris and rooting for teams to wait on running backs, it only makes sense to bet the same way here.

Etienne left Clemson as one of the most accomplished players in college football history. He set the ACC record for scrimmage yards (6,107) and was a fixture on the 2018 national title-winning team.

Still, there's reason for concern about Etienne at the next level. He put some mileage on his legs in four years at Clemson, and he actually regressed as a senior. He's not as traditional a tailback as Harris, and he doesn't have the hands of fellow prospects Kenneth Gainwell and Michael Carter.

Etienne's expected draft position implies a team pouncing in the back end of Round 1 or the first picks of Day 2. But that's a range where teams should swing for the fences, and there are running backs with much higher upside.

Pick: Over

Javonte Williams (North Carolina) - 42.5

Over: -112
Under: -112

Williams was our flier to be the first running back off the board, so the pick here is pretty straightforward. The North Carolina product registered 7.3 yards per carry and 19 touchdowns last season despite splitting carries with Carter, earning PFF's highest RB grade in the process.

Williams is only 20 years old and a three-down back. He'll be a home run in any system.

Pick: Under

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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