Fantasy: NFL draft analysis and projections after Round 1
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theScore's Justin Boone provided instant breakdowns of every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (1st)Star potential:
2021 projection (17 starts): 4,347 passing yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs
273 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 4 FUMs
Lawrence being the Jaguars' pick has been known for so long, it almost became a boring aspect of this year's first round. However, don't let that dull your excitement when it comes to his fantasy outlook.
The 21-year-old is one of the most complete quarterback prospects we've seen enter the league, which has led many to justifiably compare him to Andrew Luck.
Like Luck, Lawrence has an outstanding arm while offering added value as a runner - an important distinction for modern fantasy QBs. As we discussed in theScore's prospect rankings series, nine of last year's top 10 fantasy quarterbacks offered significant value with their legs - something the Clemson star can provide after rushing for 766 yards and 17 scores over his final two college seasons.
Jacksonville is also an intriguing landing spot for the young passer, with one of the league's better receiver trios in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones. The Jags also own last year's breakout running back James Robinson, who finished top-10 in targets and receptions at his position.
The arrival of head coach Urban Meyer should revitalize the organization, and Lawrence will benefit from working with new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who's enjoyed fantasy success with the likes of Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson in recent years. More specifically, Bevell guided Wilson to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game during his rookie season and helped Wilson and Stafford to top-five per game results - 2014 (RW), 2015 (RW), 2017 (RW), and 2019 (MS).
Given his new surroundings, Lawrence will have an excellent opportunity to return high-end QB2 fantasy numbers in 2021, with an outside shot to sneak into the top 12 even as a rookie.
Stock up: D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, James Robinson
Stock down: Gardner Minshew
Star potential:
2021 projection (17 starts): 4,077 passing yards, 20 TDs, 16 INTs
221 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 5 FUMs
Like Sam Darnold before him, Wilson will be touted as the next savior of the Jets' franchise. However, unlike his predecessor, Wilson won't have to deal with Adam Gase as his head coach.
The new regime in New York will bring a 49ers flare to the offense under HC Robert Salah and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. That's good news for Wilson as he joins an offense that added free-agent wideout Corey Davis to go along with last year's second-round pick Denzel Mims and reliable slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Even tight end Chris Herndon might finally be able to find his stride with the combination of this rebooted staff and Wilson at the helm.
The Jets also have three picks inside the top 34, so more help could be on the way for Wilson - perhaps in the form of a starting running back or some offensive line talent. Gang Green's blocking unit was ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus last season, which if left unaddressed could be a problem for Wilson's early development.
Though there'll likely be some speed bumps in the first year, the 21-year-old has the tools to be a future top-15 fantasy quarterback - if he learns to channel his gunslinger ways. The key will be whether Wilson can transition from a relatively easy college situation into the bright lights and heavy scrutiny of one of the biggest markets in the NFL.
That's a bet dynasty managers should be more than willing to take, but it's a scenario to be wary of in redraft leagues.
Stock up: Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, Chris Herndon
Stock down: None
Star potential:
2021 projection (12 starts): 2,074 passing yards, 14 TDs, 13 INTs
624 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 3 FUMs
After a rollercoaster of rumors and reporting, the 49ers finally settled on Lance as their new franchise quarterback.
Though we had Justin Fields ranked higher as a prospect, Lance has a similarly high ceiling despite being more inexperienced coming from a smaller program and sitting out most of last season.
That would normally make Lance a risky fantasy option, but with Kyle Shanahan, we can have a little more faith in this pick resulting in possible fantasy stardom.
Shanahan has a history of getting the most out of his skill position talent, including helping rookie Robert Griffin III post the third-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks in 2012.
Lance's dual-threat ability (1,100 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns during his last full college campaign) will keep defenses on their heels while he learns the system and acclimates himself to the pros. Shanahan is as savvy an offensive mind as there is and he'll build around his new quarterback's skill set.
In addition to great coaching, Lance will also be surrounded by outstanding weaponry, including superstar tight end George Kittle and young wideouts Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Not to mention an always dangerous run game that will take pressure off the first-year QB.
With draft capital supporting him, Lance will have every opportunity to succeed in San Francisco and his rushing numbers should put him in the conversation as a possible fantasy starter as soon as he gets under center. The only thing impacting that will be whether the Niners trade Jimmy Garoppolo before the season or elect to keep the veteran as a bridge until Lance is ready to take over.
Either way, Lance is a player to add to your late-round targets list and someone to invest heavily in for your dynasty squads.
Stock up: George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, 49ers RBs
Stock down: Jimmy Garoppolo
Star potential:
2021 projection: 59 receptions, 677 receiving yards, 5 TDs
After flirting with the idea of trading down, the Falcons chose to stay at four and selected arguably the best non-QB prospect in this draft.
There will be plenty of debate over whether a tight end deserves to go in the top five, but Pitts exists on another plane from every other college player at his position.
From off-the-charts athleticism, to elite route-running and hands, to an 83-inch catch radius, Pitts is the perfect tight end.
He can also be lined up anywhere in the formation, so expect to see him used as a receiver both in the slot and out wide.
Fantasy managers are well aware of the value an elite tight end offers and the search for the next Kittle, Travis Kelce, or Darren Waller can often leave you empty-handed.
Pitts isn't guaranteed to be the next great tight end, but he's the closest thing you're going to get. And while most tight ends require a couple seasons to settle into the pro game, he should be viewed as a possible TE1 in fantasy even as a rookie - while already being a top-five dynasty tight end without even playing an NFL snap yet.
Sharing targets with a pair of top wideouts like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley isn't ideal, but if Jones is traded - which has been rumored - Pitts' stock would skyrocket.
Stock up: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones
Stock down: Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Star potential:
2021 projection: 73 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, 6 TDs
The Bengals' organization was torn between finding more weapons for Joe Burrow or beefing up the offensive line that failed him last year - ultimately leading to a season-ending injury that forced him to miss the final six games.
In the end, the front office went with Chase, reuniting him with his former college quarterback from LSU.
Since Chase opted out this year, the last time we saw him on the field was in 2019 with Burrow. During that historic campaign, he caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. He even outproduced college teammate Justin Jefferson, who had one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen by an NFL wideout.
Along with the incredible production, Chase comes with a favorable breakout age (19.5), top-tier athletic measurables, and an endless list of elite traits that point to him being a superstar at the next level.
Outside of Lawrence and Pitts, there's no skill position prospect you should feel more confident in delivering as a pro than Chase. He's set up to be a WR1 in fantasy for a long time catching passes from Burrow in a promising young offense.
The only unfortunate part of him donning a Bengals jersey is that it hurts the fantasy value of teammates Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Though Higgins might be more suited to serve as a No. 2 option, he showed signs of being able to take over the top spot on the depth chart. With Chase in the fold, Higgins becomes a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 with Boyd being a much more risky WR3/WR4 out of the slot.
Stock up: Joe Burrow
Stock down: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
Star potential:
2021 projection: 47 receptions, 662 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The Dolphins are attempting to surround quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with as much talent as possible for him to excel in his sophomore season. That began by signing free-agent wideout Will Fuller and now continues by adding speedy pass-catcher Waddle.
Not only does Waddle have a history with Tua dating back to their time at Alabama, but the 22-year-old also flashed as an explosive playmaker with impressive body control while being a part of that stacked Crimson Tide receiving corps.
Comparing feisty, fast receivers to Tyreek Hill is a crutch too often leaned on by draft evaluators, and yet Waddle might be the closest thing we've seen to the Chiefs star in recent years. He's far more than just a field-stretcher and could emerge as a top-24 fantasy receiver in a year or two.
While Fuller only signed a one-year deal in Miami, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams are at risk of dropping down the depth chart long term - if Waddle makes good on the positive side in his range of fantasy outcomes. Tight end Mike Gesicki will also see his target share challenged with yet another quality pass-catcher in the mix, pushing him outside the top 12 at his position.
Stock up: Tua Tagovailoa
Stock down: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki
Star potential:
2021 projection: 44 receptions, 607 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The Eagles acquired the 10th overall pick after trading up two spots with the NFC East divisional Cowboys, likely trying to jump ahead of the Giants to select Smith.
Philadelphia's need at receiver was obvious, but whether the Heisman Trophy winner can give them the No. 1 option they lack remains to be seen.
Concerns about his weight - which is believed to be around 170 pounds - aren't going away until Smith proves he can thrive at the NFL level. It's not that a wideout his size can't find success in the pros, but the instances of it happening are extremely rare. Fortunately for Smith, so is his talent.
Ultimately, the 22-year-old will face a heightened degree of difficulty and may eventually settle in as a quality No. 2 option in Philly. So despite his immense production in college, fantasy managers should keep their expectations in check for the time being.
Though Smith will take time to settle into his role in the Eagles' offense, his presence is a major boon for Jalen Hurts, who has top-10 fantasy upside at quarterback.
Stock up: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert
Stock down: Jalen Reagor
Star potential:
2021 projection (14 starts): 3,116 passing yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs
431 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 4 FUMs
With Fields dropping outside the top 10, the Bears wasted no time trading up to secure a player they hope can finally solve their issues at quarterback. It's an all-in move for a front office running out of chances to get it right.
With this intriguing selection, Chicago adds my second-ranked QB in this class. During all of Mitch Trubisky's struggles, the Bears' offense still showed promise with a true alpha receiver in Allen Robinson and a pair of promising sophomores in wideout Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet.
Fields gives this group a chance to finally reach its potential in head coach Matt Nagy's scheme while preventing the fantasy disaster that would have been a full season of Andy Dalton starting.
This may not be a loaded landing spot like the 49ers, Panthers, or Broncos - but it's not far off. Fields will be able to lean on his dual-threat ability early on, including game-breaking 4.44-second speed in the 40-yard dash and a physical build that will allow him to handle a decent amount of carries each week. But that shouldn't take away from his accuracy as a passer, which might allow him to develop into the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with - a sad story spanning seven seasons that could soon come to an end.
Much like the signal-callers taken with the top three picks, Fields will have a chance to post QB2 fantasy stats as a rookie once he gets under center. This is a significant victory for an offense that desperately needed it.
Stock up: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet
Stock down: Andy Dalton
Star potential:
2021 projection: Will sit behind Cam Newton for most of his rookie season
The Patriots managed to avoid spending the draft capital required to move up and still had a top-five quarterback fall into their laps in the middle of the first round.
Now New England will be able to develop Jones on a reasonable rookie contract while Cam Newton gives them a competent veteran starter for most of 2021.
First-round rookie passers have trended towards seeing the field sooner rather than later in the last decade, but Jones would benefit greatly from learning on the sidelines for as long as possible. The Alabama star was always miscast when compared to the elite QB prospects in this class, and his fall proved that to some degree.
This is a great outcome for Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels long-term, but it's still hard to get overly excited about Jones from a fantasy perspective. Non-mobile pocket passers need to be exceptional to post league-winning stat lines, and Jones doesn't display enough of those top-level attributes.
For him to become truly fantasy relevant, the Pats will need to surround Jones with talent the way the Bengals treated Andy Dalton for many years. That's hardly a profile you want to bet on in fantasy.
Stock up: Mac Jones
Stock down: Cam Newton
Star potential:
2021 projection: 37 receptions, 498 receiving yards, 3 TDs
16 carries, 169 rushing yards, 2 TDs
After trading down, the Giants bolstered their receiving depth chart with one of the most explosive weapons in the draft.
Toney is a pass-catcher who can tilt the field any time he touches the ball, and with top-20 draft capital behind him, fantasy managers can feel confident he'll be featured in New York's offense.
Now if you're wondering why GM Dave Gettleman decided to address receiver, your guess is as good as anyone's. It's a position that didn't appear to be a need following the signing of free-agent wideout Kenny Golladay, who joined Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton to form a solid trio. When you factor in athletic tight end Evan Engram and star back Saquon Barkley, the Giants are bursting at the seams with skill position talent.
If the hope is to give Daniel Jones his best chance to succeed, perhaps the front office should be investing in offensive line help.
As for Toney, big fantasy numbers might not come right away. He projects as a rotational weapon early on, so be patient if you're investing in him as a rookie. Though they're not the same player, a Tavon Austin-like outcome isn't out of the question here, with Toney never evolving into a full-time impact player. Be cautious if you plan to invest in him in redraft or dynasty.
Stock up: Daniel Jones
Stock down: Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard
Star potential:
2021 projection: 212 carries, 954 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 2 FUMs
32 receptions, 206 receiving yards, 1 TD
Harris and the Steelers had been linked several times leading up to the draft, so it was no surprise to hear his name called when Pittsburgh was on the clock.
With Ben Roethlisberger showing serious signs of decline, the offense needs a strong rushing attack more than ever - and Harris can help give them just that.
The 23-year-old is ready to be deployed as a lead back who can handle work on all three downs and thrive near the goal line. Harris holds Alabama's records for career rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, so the hope is that he can emerge as a workhorse with enough pass-catching skill to be effective in all facets of the game.
As long as the wheels don't fall off for Big Ben early in the season, Harris will be positioned to challenge for low-end RB1 fantasy numbers in what should still be a high-scoring offense.
Stock up: Najee Harris
Stock down: Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland
Star potential:
2021 projection: 129 carries, 671 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 2 FUMs
59 receptions, 417 receiving yards, 3 TDs
That sound you hear is James Robinson's dynasty managers (myself included) sighing in disappointment.
Etienne is my favorite back in this class and while the landing spot puts him in an ascending offense playing alongside his college quarterback in Lawrence, it's hard not to feel for Robinson, who finished as the RB7 in 2020 despite being undrafted this time last year.
However, Robinson's loss is Etienne's gain and the Jags have just landed a dynamic runner with the upside of Alvin Kamara. Though he'll need to improve as a pass-protector, the 22-year-old brings breakaway speed and a receiving resume that features 85 grabs and 1,020 yards over the last two seasons.
If you have concerns about his NFL production, just know Kamara was a top-three back in average fantasy points scored per contest last year despite only surpassing 15 carries in two outings. That being said, head coach Urban Meyer didn't exactly inspire confidence with his comments after the pick was made.
"I see Carlos Hyde and James Robinson the one, two downhill backs and Travis Etienne can be a third-down back and a mismatch issue," Meyer said, according to Jaguars' team reporter Ashlyn Sullivan.
Etienne could be a top-10 fantasy RB if the Jaguars' coaching staff chooses to feature him - and first-round draft capital suggests they should - but for the time being, his value is slightly lowered by the fear of a committee. Treat Etienne as a low-end RB2 with Robinson falling in the RB3/RB4 range.
Stock up: None
Stock down: Travis Etienne, James Robinson, Carlos Hyde
Star potential:
2021 projection: 39 receptions, 534 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The Ravens' offense has been a unit where receiving talent goes to die - at least in terms of fantasy value.
We had plenty of hope for Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, and others over the last couple of years. But none of them have emerged as consistent fantasy options in Baltimore's low-volume passing attack.
Bateman is one of my favorite receivers among this year's prospects, but there should be legitimate concern that he'll follow suit and struggle to put up big stats catching passes from Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens finished last in the league by a wide margin when it came to passing attempts in 2020, throwing the ball just 404 times on the year. Bateman has the talent to be a top-24 fantasy wideout and was set up to overachieve immediately in the right system. Sadly, this isn't it.
Bateman will be an intriguing dynasty pick for those hoping he can overcome the Ravens' limited passing volume. His chances at excelling right out of the gate are slim, though, and his arrival only makes the outlooks of Brown, Boykin, Duvernay, and free-agent signing Sammy Watkins that much bleaker.
Stock Up: Lamar Jackson
Stock Down: Rashod Bateman, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, Sammy Watkins
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