NFL Week 1 spreads: Broncos, Washington are worth betting early
The start of the NFL season is more than three months away, but we've already been gifted a full slate of Week 1 lines to scour over. We've found a handful of early values against the spread worth betting well before the start of the season.
Here are the full lines for Week 1, along with our three favorite bets against the spread:
| WEEK 1 MATCHUPS |
|---|
| Cowboys @ Buccaneers (-6.5) |
| Cardinals @ Titans (-2.5) |
| Jaguars (-2.5) @ Texans |
| Chargers (-1) @ Washington |
| Vikings (-3.5) @ Bengals |
| Jets @ Panthers (-4) |
| Eagles @ Falcons (-3.5) |
| Steelers @ Bills (-6.5) |
| 49ers (-7.5) @ Lions |
| Seahawks @ Colts (-2) |
| Browns @ Chiefs (-5.5) |
| Broncos (-1) @ Giants |
| Packers @ Saints (-2) |
| Dolphins @ Patriots (-1.5) |
| Bears @ Rams (-7) |
| Ravens (-5) @ Raiders |
I fully expect this line to reach 7 at some point before kickoff, so why wait for a worse number when you can lay less than a touchdown on the vastly superior team?
We know what we're getting from the defending champions. The Buccaneers are returning all 22 starters from last year's title team - not including both kicking specialists - which was the only group to finish in the top five in offensive and defensive DVOA.
Compare that to the Cowboys, who have rebuilt a defense that allowed the fifth-most points (29.6) and second-most rushing yards (158.8) per game in 2020. They'll also be reinstalling Dak Prescott at QB less than a year after his gruesome leg injury that initially threatened his future in Dallas.
It's a big number, but one that's worth playing given the risk on one side and near-certainty on the other. The Bucs were 7-3-1 ATS a year ago when favored by at least four points, while home favorites in the NFL season kickoff game are 10-3-1 ATS since 2005. Lay the points on the reigning champs.
Pick: Buccaneers -6.5
Chargers (-1) @ WashingtonAre the Chargers that much better than Washington? L.A. is projected to win just a half-game more in the betting market, yet it's priced as roughly four points better on a neutral field after finishing with an identical record in 2020.
Yes, the Chargers have the superior quarterback in Justin Herbert, though his heroics netted his team a losing record a year ago. And that might be Los Angeles' lone advantage. Washington carries one of the best defenses from 2020 into this season and it adds Ryan Fitzpatrick to an offense that already features an elite O-line and explosive playmakers.
Los Angeles is better on paper than it was a year ago, but so is Washington, which finished the year on a 5-2-1 ATS run as an underdog. Expect that run to continue into this season - assuming the line doesn't flip before then.
Pick: Washington +1
Denver Broncos (-1) @ New York GiantsI know what you're thinking: yes, this line is shaded toward the Broncos in hopes of a trade that may never materialize. It's also the best reason to bet early. If Aaron Rodgers is traded to Denver - where he's most likely to play if not in Green Bay - this line could climb all the way to 7. If he isn't, it'll creep a few points toward the Giants, at worst, but likely not cross the key number of 3.
The Broncos are worth betting either way. Their defense was pedestrian by surface numbers in 2020 but was actually among the league's best in a few key areas - they ranked 11th in yards allowed per drive (33.3), seventh in three-and-out percentage (21.1%), and fifth in average red-zone points allowed (4.7).
Some poor turnover luck and atrocious offense sullied their overall numbers, but both should improve in 2021. A healthy Von Miller and newly signed Kyle Fuller should do wonders for Denver's turnover margin, while whomever is under center should benefit from one of the league's best rushing duos in Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.
Bet this game early, and don't fret if the line creeps toward New York as kickoff nears. If the Broncos land Rodgers, it'll be well worth the gamble - and if they don't, you've likely got a winner on your hands, anyway.
Pick: Broncos -1
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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