New hope Ontario schools will reopen this school year

Ontario's chief medical officer of health raised the possibility of kids back in the classroom as early as next week.

Dr. David Williams wants in-person learning to resume before Ontario enters Step 1 of its reopening plan - estimated to be the week of June 14 - because schools should be the last to close and the first to open."

My position is that I have been encouraging schools to open as soon as possible," said Williams Tuesday. Discussion with our medical officers of health throughout the province, all of them want the schools open."

The one caveat for Hamilton is that Williams brought up the potential of opening schools in some parts of the province before others, raising the prospect of keeping remote learning where the weekly rate of new COVID cases per 100,000 population remains over 100.

Hamilton's rate was 114 as of May 23, which is the lowest it has been since March 23 but still high overall.

We're trying to watch that carefully and to bring that under control," Williams said about the triple-digit rates.

The city reported 45 new cases of COVID Tuesday - the fourth day in a row the daily increase has been below 100.

A more reliable marker is the average daily new cases at 98 on May 23, which again is the lowest since March 23.

That is good to see those numbers coming down," said Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, Hamilton's medical officer of health, at a briefing Tuesday. We're at a bit of a shoulder again. We keep doing this where our numbers come down, where they sort of pause, then fall a little bit more and fall a little bit more. Hopefully we'll ... see a more rapid drop in the number of cases."

But there is worry the May long weekend will result instead in a spike of infections - especially if enough residents didn't follow the rules such as sticking to an outdoor gathering size of five while distancing or wearing a mask. Charges were laid over the weekend for large get-togethers and birthday parties.

This is always the concern - just will people go further than the reopening that is being allowed," said Richardson. We know pandemic fatigue is a very real thing ... If they don't (follow the rules), we're going to have a longer period to this reopening than we would like."

Opening schools is ultimately up to the provincial cabinet and Williams said he's had no word on if and when that decision will be considered."

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table has said opening schools could increase cases by as much as 11 per cent. However, it called that rise potentially manageable.

But Premier Doug Ford said Thursday, We can't afford an increase of 11 per cent right now."

Williams said even the hardest hit public health units feel they can manage contact tracing again. It got so overwhelming in the third wave that it was a factor in closing schools.

In addition, teachers, school staff and students age 12 and over can now get vaccinated.

We feel we're prepared," said Williams. We're hoping to be able to have a decision soon."

The province has been cautious in reopening because hospitals are also still caring for high numbers of COVID patients, including 98 in Hamilton. Of those, nearly half are severely ill with 48 in the intensive care unit (ICU).

No COVID patients have been transferred from the Greater Toronto Area since May 12.

We continue to see improvements in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions," said Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health. These trends remain encouraging but the numbers are still high and they represent people who are very ill from this disease."

In addition, roughly three-quarters of Hamilton's COVID cases since April have been fast-spreading variants that cause more severe illness and hit younger people harder.

The vast majority of variant infections are B.1.1.7, which originated in the United Kingdom. In Hamilton, there have also been 47 confirmed cases of P.1, first found in Brazil, 24 of B.1.351, first identified in South Africa, and one of B.1.617, which has devastated India's health-care system.

Variants continue to play a very strong role for us," said Richardson.

The number of tests coming back positive remains high at 8.4 per cent compared to the province's 5.7 per cent.

Hamilton has 41 ongoing outbreaks, including one new one declared Monday at Food Basics at 2500 Barton St. E., where two staff have tested positive.

Cases increased to 10 at Image Honda on Centennial Parkway North, where public health ordered a partial closure.

In terms of outbreaks, these continue to be at a high level," said Richardson. While they're moving in the right direction, it is really important that we continue to remain vigilant ... and keep those numbers going down so we can continue to move forward with reopening."

The director of the city's pandemic response stressed that none of the estimated reopening dates are set in stone" and what each step will look like is vague.

There are many things within these steps that are not yet clear including ... the limits in terms of gathering for certain activities," said Paul Johnson.

They say larger outdoor events' - does that mean 5,000 people or 100 people? The answer is, We don't know.' Those things are being discussed and determined and as soon as we're able to provide that clarity we will."

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com