Enthusiasm for first doses of COVID vaccine waning across Hamilton neighbourhoods

As Hamilton inches closer toward three-quarters of its adult population receiving one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, uptake across the city is showing signs of slowing down.

A Spectator analysis of vaccination rates in nearly two dozen Hamilton forward sortation areas or FSAs - the first three characters of a postal code - has found enthusiasm for the vaccine waned after the province entered its first stage of reopening.

While most FSAs in the city nearly or more than doubled their percentage of residents vaccinated with at least one dose from April to May, none have since matched that progress.

No FSA increased their inoculation rate by more than 10 per cent from May to June, according to the analysis, which is based off data from the non-profit research institute ICES.

And that is despite improved access to vaccines - public health administered a record 9,797 doses July 5 - as well as targeted interventions such as mobile and pop-up clinics in marginalized communities.

First doses have been easily available to people who meet a certain criteria," said Dr. Cathy Risdon, lead physician for the McMaster Family Health Team. They want the vaccine and have the (tools) to make the appointment - comfort with the online system, time to wait on the phone line, transport to reach the vaccine site."

But there are people who don't fit that criteria and getting a vaccine isn't easy for them" because of external factors, like kids or time off work or distrust in the vaccine, she added. That's what we're seeing now."

The slump in vaccination rates across Hamilton neighbourhoods comes as public health set a goal Wednesday to fully vaccinate 75 per cent of residents in each FSA by the end of August.

It's part of a renewed strategy, announced at a board of health meeting, to target unvaccinated residents and capitalize on increased supply.

We have high levels of vaccine coming through and are getting to a point where we're ordering vaccine as opposed to being allocated vaccine," said Dr. Elizabeth Richardson.

That ample supply will see all of the city's mass vaccination clinics operate on a walk-in basis for first doses beginning Thursday - a transition which Risdon called huge."

But The Spec's analysis shows the city's lofty vaccination objective is far from within reach.

As of the most recent FSA breakdown on June 20, only four FSAs in the city - L9G in Ancaster, L8S in Westdale, L8P in Durand and L9G in Dundas - had vaccinated 70 per cent of residents with at least one dose. Some FSAs, like L8L in the north end and L8H in the east end, had vaccinated just half of residents with one dose.

Meanwhile, inoculation rates for fully vaccinated FSAs range from as low as 16 per cent to as high as 39 per cent.

Public health data presented at the board meeting showed pointed vaccination rate lags among the city's youth and adults.

Hamilton is at least five per cent behind the provincial average in inoculation rates for people ages 12 to 49, according to the data, and also trails the provincial average in all but one age category.

So, what gives?

Dr. Catherine Carstairs, a professor of health and medicine history at Guelph University, said history suggests people are eager to get vaccines when there's an immediate health risk to themselves or their family. When that risk dissipates, however, it's easier to delay or avoid getting vaccinated.

The degree to which the situation seems urgent plays a huge role in whether or not people get vaccinated," said Carstairs, who recently studied the complexities of vaccine enthusiasm in historical pandemics.

Consider, for instance, the polio pandemic. About 90 per cent of school-aged children and 10 per cent of adults in Canada had been inoculated with the polio vaccine by 1959 - the year which saw nearly 2,000 paralytic cases in the country's young adults.

Children were rushed to get vaccinated in the mid-1950s because polio was often seen as a children disease - even though young adults were at risk," explained Carstairs. Once adults saw there was an immediate risk to their health in 1959, that's when they chose to get vaccinated."

Carstairs said that might help explain why Ontario saw such fervent enthusiasm for the vaccine during the stay-at-home in April - because cases were high - and why some parts of the province are now lagging - because cases are low.

But the looming threat of the highly transmissible Delta variant should be reason enough to get a vaccine, said Dr. Dominic Mertz, associate professor of infectious diseases at McMaster University.

First and foremost, the unvaccinated are responsible for the majority of Delta cases and the spread of Delta," said Mertz.

Indeed, provincial data shows 74 per cent of new cases in Ontario are tied to the Delta variant and about 93 per cent of COVID deaths between December and June were in unvaccinated people.

Even if Hamilton boasts a healthy citywide vaccination rate average, Mertz said the Delta variant will still creep into areas that are less protected and spread.

Delta will find those pockets of unvaccinated people, those social circles, those neighbourhoods," he said. You will expect more outbreaks in those areas."

Sebastian Bron is a Hamilton-based reporter at The Spectator. Reach him via email: sbron@thespec.com