Robinhood targets IPO valuation up to $35B amid warning that crypto incomes are slipping

Robinhood released an S-1/A filing detailing its first IPO price range this morning. The company first filed to go public in early July after raising billions earlier in the year.

The well-known U.S. consumer fintech giant intends to sell shares in its public market debut at a price between $38 and $42 per share. Robinhood is selling 52,375,000 in its IPO, worth $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion. Another 2,625,000 are being offered by existing shareholders, while its underwriting banks have the option to purchase a further 5,500,000 shares in the transaction.

All told, Robinhood could see shares trade hands worth just over $2.5 billion in its IPO at the top end of its initial price range.

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We want to know Robinhood's simple and diluted IPO valuation ranges, and we want to dig into the company's newly released preliminary Q2 2021 results. Then we'll do some fun math to better understand just how rich, or not, Robinhood's current price range seems to be. From there, we'll discuss whether we expect to see Robinhood raise its price range before it debuts.

Sound good? Let's get into it.

What's Robinhood worth?

We'll start by calculating a few valuation marks for Robinhood to help put its $38 to $42 per-share IPO price range into context.

First, Robinhood's post-IPO simple share count is expected to be 835,675,280, not including shares reserved for possible underwriter purchase. That share count values Robinhood at $31.8 billion at $38 per share and $35.1 billion at $42 per share. Those figures rise by $209 million and $231 million, respectively, if we count the 5.5 million shares that its banks may purchase as part of the IPO.

But what folks will want to chat on Twitter about the company's fully diluted valuation. At the midpoint of its price range, Robinhood is worth more than $38 billion when shares tied up in vested RSUs and options are counted. That figure lands around $40 billion at the top end of Robinhood's price range.

Robinhood would therefore be worth $35 billion, calculated using a simple share count, or as much as $40 billion if more equity is counted. Both numbers are fucking huge and indicate that Robinhood's ascent in the last 18 months from breakout unicorn to category-defining upstart is about to be embraced by the public market, provided that it prices at least in range.

How do those prices feel, given our read of today's market dynamics?

How is Robinhood doing?