Most of Hamilton’s active COVID cases are in the unvaccinated

The vast majority of Hamilton's active COVID cases appear to be unvaccinated.

Data reported by the city Thursday links a vaccine with only 16 of 108 ongoing infections - or just under 15 per cent.

However, the data is incomplete so it's impossible to tell how many of the 16 have had two shots versus one dose. It also doesn't show when they were vaccinated so it's unknown if at least two weeks had elapsed to give them full protection. In addition, it's possible vaccine information is missing for some cases.

Public health provided no clarification on the data Friday, including how it determines who is vaccinated. As a result, it's unknown if it has to rely on those infected to reveal their vaccination status or if it has a more reliable way of checking.

Vaccine status is one category of information collected from each individual who tests positive," public health said in a statement, without answering further questions.

The data supports claims that COVID is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated - one in four eligible haven't had a single shot in Hamilton. It's one in three for ages 12 to 34.

The vaccine is very good at preventing new infections, it is excellent at keeping people out of the hospital," said Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health. Getting vaccinated means you're less likely to get infected or suffer the severe outcomes of COVID-19."

Nine of the active cases are listed as health-care workers or staff in seniors' homes, with only one linked to a vaccine.

Outbreaks in long-term care - including St. Joseph's Villa in Dundas, Arbour Creek Care Centre in Stoney Creek and the Village of Tansley Woods in Burlington - have contributed to fierce debate over whether health-care workers should be required to get the shot.

Premier Doug Ford has rejected mandatory vaccination.

Both the Ontario Medical Association and the Registered Nurses' Association of Ontario have called for health-care workers to be required to get vaccinated.

I do think it should be mandatory for health-care workers who are working directly with patients ... they should not be putting them at risk," said Dr. Mark Loeb, chair in infectious diseases at McMaster University. It's very important. We know vaccination protects themselves and it also protects patients."

Of Thursday's active cases, 23 of them - just over 20 per cent - were connected to outbreaks in long-term care.

Of those, four are linked in the data to a vaccine and they're all seniors - none are staff.

Five are listed as workers, but they may be staff at homes outside of Hamilton and aren't necessarily connected to homes here.

Dr. Martha Fulford warns against knee-jerk" reactions to ongoing COVID spread, particularly in vulnerable settings - five seniors have died in the outbreak at Tansley Woods, while the Hamilton homes have seen 29 people infected.

I certainly believe there is a moral imperative for health-care workers to do their absolute best to not transmit anything to our patients," said Fulford, infectious disease specialist and associate professor at McMaster. And I would have no problems whatsoever saying we have to reveal our vaccination status to our employer."

But she called mandatory vaccination a slippery slope" that is difficult to define and hard to enforce.

She's also against vaccine passports, which have been rejected by both the premier and the chief medical officer of health despite the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table suggesting they should be considered.

The brief published Wednesday suggested the passports could be used to maintain economic and societal reopening if public health measures need to be reintroduced."

Modelling has predicted a surge of the aggressive Delta variant in the fall. Hamilton public health put out a plea Friday for the young to get vaccinated, stressing first doses need to be administered by July 27 and second doses by Aug. 24 for kids 12 and over to be fully protected before school starts.

Coercion is not an effective public health measure," Fulford said about using passports as an incentive. It's polarizing, it's divisive, it's no way to try to convince the last people who are unvaccinated."

Instead she recommends education, encouragement and kindness.

Find out why they are not vaccinated," she said. A lot of them are already marginalized and disenfranchised."

Of Hamilton's active cases, nine can't get vaccinated because they are age nine or younger. A further 11 cases are age 17 or younger, so a portion of them would also not meet the minimum age.

It leaves at least 72 of Thursday's active cases - about two-thirds - showing no link to a vaccine despite being an eligible age.

It's far more productive to look at who isn't being vaccinated and have targeted public health strategies to bring them in voluntarily," said Fulford.

She says it may also be time to stop focusing on COVID case counts.

Case counts, if they don't have any impact on the health-care system, are probably less important," she said. If our objective was to not overwhelm the health-care system, we have achieved that with the vaccination rates we have."

She stresses, COVID is not going away" - it will become endemic, which is when an infection is circulating perpetually in a geographic area but is much more predictable like seasonal flu.

We have to be very clear on what the vaccines do," she said They certainly are extremely effective at preventing severe disease, hospitalization and death. They have not been quite as effective - and we didn't expect it so this is OK - at necessarily preventing mild disease."

Hamilton hasn't had any new COVID deaths in more than two weeks.

Our objective ... is to declaw and defang COVID so it becomes yet just another respiratory virus that is an endemic virus," said Fulford.

Ontario's chief medical officer of health wants Ontario to get to a 90 per cent vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity against Delta by fall.

But Fulford questions whether Ontario is closer than it seems - the rate was 79 per cent as of Tuesday.

How many people have had infections already who haven't been vaccinated," she said. Because those people are immune."

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com