Erin O’Toole approaches an election with a party so fractured that some Conservatives want him to lose
Multiple party sources tell the Toronto Star discussions within their ranks these days bring to mind the early 2000s and a fractured right that rendered conservatives incapable of taking down the governing Liberals.
Everyone is mad on all sides," said one senior conservative operative speaking on the condition of anonymity due to their work on campaigns.
Erin O'Toole, who in August marks his first anniversary as party leader, has been on the road for weeks now, trying to raise his profile - and the party's polling numbers - by making all manner of campaign promises.
In a fundraising pitch to members sent Saturday, he called the response he's received overwhelming."
But frustration with the leader exists on all sides of the party.
During a visit to Alberta for the Calgary Stampede - normally a Conservative love fest - he got an earful from westerners at public and private conservative events about his promise to implement carbon pricing.
Social conservatives, although buoyed by O'Toole allowing free votes on matters of conscience and the fact he has a noted social conservative in his inner circle, are nonetheless uncertain about how much leeway the leader will give MPs going forward.
He repeatedly calls access to abortion a right.
We need to ensure that those rights and that access is available to women across the country, and it will be under a Conservative government," he said Friday during a swing through New Brunswick.
The grassroots grumble along, some still smarting from the recent convention and an embarrassing vote on the issue of climate change they think O'Toole ought to have handled better, others confused by watching what they thought were going to be contested nominations evaporate in favour of acclaimed candidates.
The splinters play out riding by riding as the party prepares for an imminent election, and every wing seems to be trying to advance one of their own in contested nominations.
This was most recently on display in Simcoe North, an Ontario riding that's one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and left vacant by the retirement of Bruce Stanton.
Basil Clarke, mayor of the Township of Ramara, ran on the strength of his long-time connection to the area and years in local politics. He was opposed to COVID-19 lockdowns earlier this year and promised to scrap a carbon tax - no matter that O'Toole has promised one.
Other candidates were backed by competing party heavyweights:
Toyin Crandell, a Black businesswoman and party activist involved with training Christian conservatives for politics, ran with the help of Steve Outhouse, O'Toole's deputy chief of staff, who has long championed socially conservative candidates. (Outhouse's donning of two hats isn't sitting well with some in the party.)
Potential candidate Marcus Mattinson, a former Parliament Hill staffer and communications lead for the Ontario PCs, had the support of Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre, who some see as a potential aspirant to the leader's job.
Meanwhile, Adam Chambers, a senior adviser to former finance minister Jim Flaherty, had other big party players in his corner: one-time foreign affairs minister John Baird and Alberta Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner.
Chambers won the contest, calling it a robust process" with high-quality candidates.
We are very much a big tent party and this is evidenced in the Simcoe North nomination process bringing our local membership to near record levels," he said Friday.
His was a victory cheered by many within the party not just because of his pedigree, but also the fact he beat Crandell.
If she'd won, said one long-time Tory operative, furor over whether Outhouse was double-dipping would have spilled out far more than it did.
It's not just the social conservative part," said the source. It's just a highly unusual arrangement."
Stephen Harper once famously said in 2005: if you don't have factions, you're not a Conservative party."
But in conversations with the Star, two sources close to O'Toole said they believe there are elements and individuals within the Conservative party who would be happy to see the rookie leader lose.
We have certain people who want to see us lose, there's no question," said one source, who agreed to discuss internal party dynamics on the condition they not be named.
You (reporters) hear from them often. They do not want us to win. It's not like Oh, I wish you guys would do better.' They look to make something out of nothing."
One longtime Conservative recently dismissed those concerns, chalking it up to paranoia" on the part of O'Toole's team.
The Tories do continue to rake in more money than their rivals, a fact they always point to as proof the party has wide support.
Second-quarter results posted Friday show they raised $5.1 million in that three-month time period. Liberal results have yet to be made public.
But the disquiet is persisting.
I haven't, internally, heard anything like this since the (Canadian) Alliance days," one Conservative source said in an interview.
Most people I talk to out (West) say OK, we're going to lose three to four seats in Alberta, we're going to lose one to two seats in Saskatchewan. It's just unbelievable."
In a statement sent to the Star Saturday, O'Toole did not directly address the ongoing tensions. He said the party has a singular focus: jobs.
In the upcoming election - whenever it is - Canadians will have a clear choice," he said.
Canada's Conservatives will focus on jobs and getting Canada's economy back on track as quickly as possible, while the Liberals, NDP, and Greens will push unaffordable spending commitments that will leave Canada with unsustainable levels of debt and unemployment."
Some of the headwinds come from outside of the party.
Maxime Bernier and his People's Party of Canada failed to even come close to winning a seat in the 2019 election - but Bernier's unusual mixture of populism, libertarianism and the far-right fringe are still alive.
Both Bernier and former Conservative MP Derek Sloan - who has announced plans to start his own party - aim to capitalize on anti-mask and anti-lockdown movements protesting COVID-19 health measures.
Then there is the Maverick Party. Led by former Reformer tuned Conservative cabinet minister Jay Hill, the upstart Mavericks look to capitalize on always-simmering sentiments of Western alienation in the Conservative heartland of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Bernier, Sloan and Hill are unlikely to become a real force in the general election. But together, they threaten to peel away support in Western ridings the Conservatives usually win.
Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi told the Star the percentage of Western Canadians who plan to vote for parties other than the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP or Greens is abnormally high and rising ahead of an expected election call.
Typically, other' parties, small fringe parties don't poll above four (per cent nationally) and don't get much more than a sliver, we're talking less than two per cent," Maggi said, noting that in recent polling he's seen support for other" parties as high as 11.8 per cent in Alberta.
That's not enough to win, but it might be enough to cost Conservatives a few seats. Some analysis suggested that in 2019, support for Bernier cost the Tories as many as seven seats.
When we're polling in Calgary, polling in Edmonton for other things, we are seeing a significant enough chunk where ... in those areas, it could be enough of a vote split to make a difference," Maggi said.
Simcoe North is an example of what happens when the vote is split on the right.
For years before the 1993 election destroyed the Progressive Conservative Party, the riding was held by the PCs.
In the next three elections, with the rise of the Alliance, the vote on the right split, handing the riding to the Liberals.
It would take a united Conservative party until 2006 to win it back.
As a conservative operative told the Star, a victory for O'Toole in the next campaign would straighten up the tent poles.
Winning shuts everyone up."
Alex Boutilier is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @alexboutilier
Stephanie Levitz is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @StephanieLevitz