Is Alexander Lukashenko trying out the ‘madman’ theory of foreign policy?

The Belarusian dictator's unpredictability is unsettling opponents and allies alike. He must be checked

These have been busy times for the rogue state of Belarus.

In recent days, an opposition activist, Vitaly Shyshov, was found dead - hanging from a tree in a park in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv - in what is now officially a murder case. Shyshov headed an NGO that helped Belarusians escape from the ever-increasing repression back home, having himself fled in 2020. The Olympic 200m sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya narrowly escaped being bundled on to a plane back home from Tokyo, and has been granted a humanitarian visa by Poland. And the EU commissioner for home affairs, Sweden's Ylva Johansson, flew to Lithuania to try to do something about Belarus's state-organised smuggling of migrants over the border into its neighbour (the government in Minsk has been accused of organising flights from Baghdad to Belarus: migrants are led by guides to the border, and the whole operation is advertised on social media).