Forecasting shows Hamilton’s fourth wave can be blunted

Modelling predicts a fourth wave of COVID in Hamilton, primarily of the young and unvaccinated, with case numbers soaring to record highs fuelled by the aggressive Delta variant.

However, Scarsin Forecasting also maps out how to avoid this worst-case scenario by preventing thousands of cases and hundreds of hospitalizations with masking and vaccination.

The curve could be bent down much lower than the third wave," epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the city's board of health Wednesday.

The message that Ontarians are in the driver's seat is also being shared by the province's chief medical officer of health.

We can blunt this," said Dr. Kieran Moore. We can decrease its impact."

The forecasting shows 15,000 cases can be prevented between now and the end of December if residents - including the fully vaccinated - wear masks and physically distance.

These measures will also avoid over 500 hospitalizations and 50 deaths, predicts Scarsin which accurately modelled the height of the third wave and the current swell of cases.

Keep in mind this is about what people are actually doing and not about public health advice or the law," said Sanderson.

The fourth wave would be dulled even more by increased vaccination - especially in Hamilton, which has among the lowest rate in the province.

COVID shots have fallen off a cliff in the last month from a peak of 9,000 a day in July to 1,700 now.

Public health has a steep hill to climb to get first doses to 80 per cent of residents and a second shot to 75 per cent.

It requires 14,788 more first doses and 37,399 second shots. At the current pace, it would take a month to get there.

In comparison, Halton has Ontario's second-highest vaccine coverage with 85 per cent already having one shot and 76 per cent fully vaccinated.

Hamilton's vaccination rates for seniors is comparable to other health units," said Melissa Biksa, manager of the city's vaccine rollout. However, Hamilton's vaccination rates are lagging for adults and youth."

It's of concern when the forecasting shows those age 59 and younger will be the hardest hit in the fourth wave.

The other vast divide among vaccination rates is by neighbourhood. The first dose target has been met by only eight of Hamilton's 21 forward sortation areas (FSA) - a geographic area identified by the first three characters of a postal code. Just three have reached the goal for the second shot.

Public health drilled down even further using census tracts to identify Hamilton's four most vulnerable areas to a fourth wave:

• Lower central Hamilton, with 55 to 65 per cent with first doses and 12,000 unvaccinated;

• Flamborough, with 55 to 65 per cent first doses and 8,500 unvaccinated;

• The Red Hill Valley and east end, with 60 to 70 per cent first shots and 9,000 unvaccinated;

• A pocket surrounding the Lincoln M. Alexander Parkway, with 60 to 70 per cent first doses and 11,000 unvaccinated.

A number of prominent Ontario epidemiologists have said the fourth wave has already begun, including Ahmed Al-Jaishi, whose analysis showed Hamilton had the highest COVID rate in Ontario on Wednesday.

Hamilton public health isn't ready to make that declaration.

It's still too early to tell whether this recent activity is part of a smaller swell or if it's the beginning of Wave 4," said epidemiologist Stephanie Hughes. Only time will tell."

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com