Hamilton’s first pandemic election is guaranteed to shake up the political landscape

No matter who wins, this pandemic federal election will shake up Hamilton's political landscape.

Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday called a snap election slated for Sept. 20, a move Opposition critics labelled a political power play that ignores the risk of a fourth wave of COVID infections. The latest polls suggest the lightning campaign - just 36 days in length - could just as easily result in another minority government.

But change is coming in Hamilton regardless - because vacant seats mean nearly two-thirds of residents will end up with new faces representing them federally in Ottawa.

That makes Hamilton very interesting, a real hot spot for this election," said Henry Jacek, political scientist and professor emeritus at McMaster University.

Three local political heavyweights - Flamborough-Glanbrook Conservative MP David Sweet, NDP Mountain MP Scott Duvall and East Hamilton-Stoney Creek Liberal MP Bob Bratina - have all decided not to run again.

That's three out of five (Hamilton) seats vacant - and there is no shoo-in to win in any of those ridings," said Jacek. I wouldn't bet on a winner in any of them."

In the city's other ridings, candidates will have to work hard to challenge the NDP Hamilton Centre incumbent Matthew Green and Liberal cabinet minister Filomena Tassi in Hamilton West-Ancaster Dundas, he said.

Here's a look at the three open races:

• Hamilton Mountain has voted NDP federally since 2006, but is a historical swing riding. The last election was a relatively close three-way race between the New Democrats, the Liberals and Conservatives.

With well-known MP Scott Duvall stepping down, the New Democrats hope to keep the riding orange by bringing in newcomer and former Welland MP Malcolm Allen.

He'll face a challenge from Tory Al Miles, who place third in 2015, and either past candidate Bruno Uggenti or CHCH journalist Lisa Hepfner for the Liberals.

That will be interesting, because Hamiltonians do like local people to represent them, but (Allen) is a veteran candidate who knows what it takes to win," said Jacek.

• In Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Liberal MP and former mayor Bob Bratina decided not to run again because he disagreed with his government's decision to fund light rail transit in the city.

Jacek sees the real battle" in this riding between the Liberals and NDP, but Tory Ned Kuruc hit the ground early.

The Liberals replaced their former city mayor with a well-known Ward 5 councillor, Chad Collins - who also happens to oppose the Liberal-funded light rail project. He'll face a strong challenge" from NDP candidate Nick Milanovic, a university professor and labour lawyer who earned nearly 30 per cent of the vote last election.

• In Flamborough-Glanbrook, Jacek said he's particularly interested to see how changing demographics affect an open race in the more rural riding, where longtime Tory MP David Sweet faced criticism over his pandemic comments and travel before opting not to run again.

It used to be a riding the Conservatives would win hands-down, but that's no longer the case," Jacek said, pointing to an influx of relocated urban residents to the riding and a close race in 2019.

Two former behind-the-scenes organizers are running for the Liberals and Conservatives this year: former mayoral candidate Vito Sgro for the Liberals and longtime party staffer Dan Muys for the Tories. Interestingly, Sgro also opposes the light rail project funded by the Liberal government.

In addition to the battles shaping up in Hamilton ridings, Jacek noted this election will be unique - and maybe fraught - because of COVID-19.

Jacek said it will be interesting to see how or if the pandemic influences voter intentions, particularly with a feared fourth wave of variant-fuelled infection just beginning. Candidates will also have to adjust to the wary new world of COVID campaigning. Handshakes and kissing babies - not a good idea," he said.

Jacek said climate change and the wild" cost of housing - both for renters and would-be buyers - could also drive voters in this snap election.

I think the alarming things people are seeing, drought and floods and wildfires and the like, could mean a dramatic increase in interest among voters," he said. I mean, you can smell the smoke (from northwestern Ontario fires) from here."

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