NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, best bets: Take a shot on Waller
Every year, an offensive player wins NFL MVP. Oftentimes, that player does not win Offensive Player of the Year. It's a strange nuance for an award that often rewards record-setting statistical seasons over generic offensive impact.
A brief look at recent winners tells the whole story. Derrick Henry rushed for 2,027 yards, fifth-most in NFL history, to win the award in 2020. Michael Thomas shattered the NFL record for receptions (149) in his 2019 campaign. And 2018 winner Patrick Mahomes approached records for passing yards (5,097) and touchdowns (50) in his stellar MVP season.
So who can threaten history this campaign? Here are the odds to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (50-1 or shorter), along with a few of our favorite values on the board:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | +700 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1200 |
| Dalvin Cook | +1400 |
| Josh Allen | +1500 |
| Alvin Kamara | +1600 |
| Davante Adams | +1600 |
| George Kittle | +1600 |
| Nick Chubb | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1800 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1800 |
| Tom Brady | +1800 |
| Travis Kelce | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | +2000 |
| Russell Wilson | +2000 |
| Stefon Diggs | +2000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +2200 |
| Tyreek Hill | +2200 |
| Calvin Ridley | +2500 |
| Dak Prescott | +2500 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +2500 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +2500 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +2800 |
| Justin Jefferson | +3000 |
| Michael Thomas | +3000 |
| Taysom Hill | +3000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +3500 |
| Austin Ekeler | +3500 |
| Chris Carson | +3500 |
| Najee Harris | +3500 |
| Raheem Mostert | +3500 |
| Aaron Jones | +4000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +4000 |
| Joe Mixon | +4000 |
| Julio Jones | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| DK Metcalf | +5000 |
| Damien Harris | +5000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +5000 |
| Matt Ryan | +5000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +5000 |
Conventional wisdom says Kamara is due for regression in his age-26 season, the first without Drew Brees leading the Saints offense. But what if New Orleans builds its new offense around its star back? If it does, the upside is there for a potentially record-setting season.
Since his rookie campaign in 2017, Kamara ranks second in scrimmage yards (6,164) despite recording fewer than 300 touches in each of the last four seasons. He averaged 6.3 yards per touch in 2021 and led the league with 21 rushing and receiving touchdowns on 270 touches. If that number jumps closer to 310 or 315 - still well below the league leaders each year - then watch out.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (+2200)Only four active quarterbacks have thrown for more yards than Stafford since he entered the league in 2009. And the longtime Lions gunslinger has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in eight of the last 10 seasons despite being surrounded by a shoddy O-line and subpar weapons for most of his career. Now he joins a Rams unit loaded with talent in Sean McVay's stellar offensive scheme.
Stafford already holds numerous career and single-season passing records, and he'd need to average 323 passing yards per contest in this year's 17-game schedule to break Peyton Manning's record (5,477) from 2013. Stafford has averaged at least 310 yards in three different seasons - including 2019 - and has an outside shot at this record in McVay's offense. Even without it, his gaudy stat line will be enough for consideration, anyway.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers (+3500)Ekeler rarely cracks the list of household names that most bettors would consider for an award like this, but he deserves to be among them. The Chargers' versatile back averaged 102.1 scrimmage yards in his nine full games in 2020, which would've ranked fourth across an entire season.
It isn't unreasonable to expect that number to climb in 2021 behind an improved offensive line and alongside an emerging star in Justin Herbert, who targeted Ekeler nearly 50 times over the final six games of last season. If he can key Los Angeles' first playoff berth since 2018, he'll have a shot.
Darren Waller, TE, Raiders (+6500)A tight end has never won this award, and only two receivers - Thomas and Jerry Rice - have ever claimed it. So why bet Waller here? Simply put, the Raiders pass-catcher is a superstar hiding in plain sight and shouldn't be priced as such a long shot, regardless of precedent.
The 6-foot-6, 255-pound star ranks in the top seven in yards (2,341), receptions (197), and targets (262) since 2019 after a pair of 1,000-yard seasons. Waller averaged 130.8 yards over the final five games of 2020 - a 2,223-yard pace across 17 contests - and is a serious threat to break Travis Kelce's single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end (1,416). If Las Vegas continues to use him as the focal point of its passing game, he's in line for a monster campaign.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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