Voter support ‘see-sawing’ in unwanted pandemic election
Just days before Canada's first pandemic federal election, it looks like the only widespread agreement among voters is they didn't want to go to the polls in the first place.
National opinion polls have put the Liberals and Conservatives in a dogfight for popular support, with both hovering in the low 30 per cent range. The NDP are holding steady but trailing at around 20 per cent support.
If current trends hold, a majority government for anyone appears out of reach," said Clifton van der Linden, founder of Vox Pop Labs and a political science professor at McMaster University. But voter intentions have been see-sawing' since the beginning of the campaign, so there remains that surprise element."
By contrast, nearly two-thirds of Canadians agreed in an August poll they did not want a snap election in the middle of a worsening COVID-19 pandemic.
The fast-spreading Delta variant has overshadowed the snap 2021 election in a number of ways, both nationally and in the Hamilton region.
For one, it appears to have crimped the plans of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who is now waiting to see if voters reward his past government for a much-debated pandemic performance - or punish him for forcing voters to mask up and go to the polls unnecessarily.
The party was probably not expecting such significant blowback" over the decision, said van der Linden.
Similarly, the controversy over vaccine mandates and passports has created an unprecedented" boost in support for the otherwise marginalized People's Party of Canada - and driven troubling protest action on the campaign trail.
Angry anti-vaxxer crowds, for example, have dogged Trudeau's steps at local campaign stops, disrupting a housing announcement in Ancaster and a campaign stop in Welland. Police have also arrested someone for allegedly throwing gravel at a London stop.
The vaccination status of candidates has also caused headaches for Erin O'Toole's Conservatives, with the party refusing to reveal how many would-be MPs have got the jab.
In Haldimand-Norfolk, star Tory candidate Leslyn Lewis did not specify if she was vaccinated in response to a recent Torstar question, but tweeted earlier in the summer criticizing the government for its move to tie our freedom to getting a vaccine even with lotteries as incentives."
In Niagara West, Tory candidate Dean Allison, who has stated he has a medical exemption for the COVID shot, has faced criticism for publicly calling on the government to explore alternate therapies including livestock drug ivermectin. (Allison later sent a statement to the press reiterating he respects the advice of health experts on how best to treat COVID-19.")
Outside of the pandemic, van der Linden said voters identify climate change and the environment, the economy, health care and social justice as major issues that could sway ballot box decisions.
But COVID has also forced parties to adjust how they respond to many of those issues.
Protesters in Hamilton and across the country have rallied to demand a just recovery" that helps alleviate a nationwide housing crisis, climate change threats and poverty exacerbated by the pandemic, for example.
All major parties have backed investing more in Hamilton transit and potentially contentious projects like a $3.4-billion LRT that is also promoted as a climate-friendly job creator coming out of COVID.
No matter which party forms the government in September, at least five Hamilton-and-region ridings will be sending a new face to Parliament.
Brantford-Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek all boast open election races.
If polls and pundits are correct, it will be tough to unseat the Conservatives in Brant and Haldimand despite the lack of incumbents.
But in Hamilton, the Liberals and NDP are jockeying hard for east city and Mountain seats - and both Trudeau and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh have visited the city twice during the short campaign.
In Flamborough-Glanbrook, where longtime Tory MP David Sweet is not running again, the Liberals came close to pulling off an upset in the historically blue riding in 2019.
Interestingly, the Liberal candidates in both Flamborough-Glanbrook and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek have both historically opposed the light rail transit system recently funded by the federal Liberals.
The controversial train is also the reason there is an open race at all in the east city, where former MP and mayor Bob Bratina quit over his opposition to funding the light rail project.
Matthew Van Dongen is a Hamilton-based reporter covering transportation for The Spectator. Reach him via email: mvandongen@thespec.com