‘The world is on fire:’ How should Hamilton residents vote in a climate emergency?

The climate emergency finally burned through Hamilton's pandemic preoccupation this summer - just in time for an election.

Maybe you saw the heartbreaking televised images of the deadly heat dome" and blaze that destroyed the B.C. village of Lytton in June. Or puzzled over a late July pall of smoke hanging over Hamilton - a lung-busting haze caused by wildfires raging more than a 1,500 kilometres away in northwestern Ontario.

Experts say we're in for more droughts, forest fires and heat waves thanks to climate change - even if we managed to end greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow. As it is, Canada's emissions remain stubbornly static and we're in tough to meet promised cuts meant to limit global temperature rise this century to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Marilyn Gilmore is painfully aware" of the risks even without seeing the disaster footage or repeated Environment Canada air-quality warnings over the summer.

I can tell by sitting outside my house. One day I just couldn't breathe - my lungs were burning," said the 78-year-old, who is battling chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and is particularly sensitive to changes in air quality.

Gilmore retreated inside her east-end bungalow and relied on air conditioning and oxygen therapy to escape the surprise pollution spurred by faraway fires in July. She did so again during heat waves in June and August, since air-baking temperatures and oppressive humidity also triggers symptoms like wheezing and coughing.

A global warming trend that translates into more frequent heat waves in Hamilton is a life-and-death matter to Gilmore - and she wants political parties vying for her vote to treat it that way.

If you think about it, I'm lucky," she said. If I had been living in the wrong part of B.C. I'd probably be dead right now."

Not a faraway' problem

The startling summer haze in Hamilton brought home the risk of climate change in a new way for some residents - but local impacts" having been sneaking up on the city for years, said professor Altaf Arain, director of the McMaster Centre for Climate Change.

It's not a faraway problem. We all live in the same house when it comes to climate change," said Arain, who presented UN climate model predictions localized for Hamilton at a virtual meeting organized by advocacy groups called The Heat is On.

It's clear we are warming and warming very rapidly," he told The Spectator, adding UN climate reports suggest Canada's temperatures are set to rise faster than the global average. Drastic increases in drought, in fires, in basement flooding, in health impacts like heart disease ... there are so many ways we may be impacted."

Different models vary in predicting temperature and hydrological changes for Hamilton over time. But summaries used for planning purposes by the City of Hamilton, for example, suggest that by 2080:

• The number of summer days at or above 30 C could jump from 16 to 63;

• The average length of a heat wave could more than double from 3.8 to 8.4 days;

• More extreme weather patterns - like short-but-intense storms and more frequent drought - are expected to overwhelm underground sewers and make Lake Ontario levels unpredictable.

It's not just a tomorrow problem, either.

Hamilton is already struggling with the consequences of more frequent and fierce storms, particularly when it comes to protecting resident basements and the environment from sewage overflows.

Lake Ontario water levels have yo-yoed dramatically around record highs in 2017 and 2019, causing tens of millions of dollars in damage to the recreational waterfront, leaving beach strip residents with soggy basements and flooded streets, and spurring evacuations along the storm-battered Stoney Creek waterfront.

But Arain said rising temperatures could ultimately be the bigger challenge.

Think farmers struggling against more frequent drought and crop-destroying storms. A need for more clean electricity generation to handle a spike in air-conditioning demand.

Literal life-and-death consequences for people with health conditions, those without air conditioning, or no roof over their heads at all - especially in cities covered in concrete and asphalt, which magnify hot temperatures in the urban jungle by as much as 12 C.

Some low-income residents living in older apartment buildings don't have access to air conditioning. Advocates say Ontario does not adequately track or investigate sudden deaths during heat waves, but in B.C., around 800 people died suddenly during last July's infamous, record-breaking heat wave.

Such statistics weigh heavily on the mind of senior Colleen Lacey, who lives with her husband on the third floor of a North End apartment building without air conditioning.

Lacey said they used to run a window air-conditioner, but new building management asked the couple to pay a monthly charge of about $68 to cover energy costs. I'm on a fixed income. We just couldn't do it," said the 65-year-old, who added they now rely solely on pedestal fans despite poor health.

Lacey said she suspects her husband's recent illness, which sent him briefly to hospital, was exacerbated by a mid-August heat wave that saw him sleeping on the couch in front of a fan in a vain effort to stay cool. When it gets bad, we don't go outside, we barely move," she said.

Lacey wants the federal government to tackle the threat of global warming - but she also argues more needs to be done immediately to help vulnerable seniors who are suffering through intense heat waves.

What can we do?

The latest UN climate report sounds grim, but also holds out hope concerted efforts to cut emissions and end reliance on fossil fuels can mitigate the worst-case consequences of rising temperatures. In Canada, that report seemed to come at just the right time: the start of a federal election campaign.

But Environment Hamilton head Lynda Lukasik said she is frustrated by what she's hearing from political parties on the topic of climate change so far.

It's not hyperbole; the world is on fire," said Lukasik, whose group joined a nationwide protest dubbed Canada on Fire" earlier this month to push climate change as the top election issue. It really is an existential crisis, just as much as the pandemic is. But I don't hear that urgency from our (political party) leaders."

All parties are talking up climate change in some form in election platforms - and for the first time, the Conservative party has endorsed the concept of a carbon tax that is considered necessary to force industry to cut emissions.

But a non-partisan study by the Generation Squeeze" lab at the University of British Columbia suggests no party is promising to do enough to fight what the World Health Organization labels the greatest threat to human health in this century. We still need better from all parties," said the study introduction. There's no time to lose."

Lukasik said she wants to hear all major parties talk in detail about plans to leave (oil) in the ground," transition fossil-fuel industry workers into new green jobs and cancel controversial projects like the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.

I guess it will be up to the public to put pressure on whatever government we end up with," she said. I hope we don't run out of time."

How to vote for climate action

Just about every political party aside from the People's Party of Canada recognizes the threat of climate change and has a plan to address it. But there are plenty of differences.

Below, we list a snapshot of party positions on a few major climate issues. (For a more detailed platform comparison, check out a UBC analysis online at gensqueeze.ca.)

Emission-cutting targets (per cent below 2005 baseline)

Tories: would cut emissions by 30 per cent, which would roll back Canada's latest international commitment of 40 to 45 per cent.

Liberals: would cut emissions between 40 and 45 per cent by 2030; aim for net zero" by 2050.

NDP: would cut emissions by 50 per cent, aim for net zero" by 2050.

Green: would cut emissions by 60 per cent, a target demanded by many Canadian environmental groups. Also backs 2050 date to reach net negative" emissions.

Carbon tax (a price per tonne on carbon emissions)

Tories: committing to a carbon tax for the first time, starting at $20 and rising to $50 by 2030. Revenues would go into individual low-carbon savings accounts." Higher taxes could apply to industrial emitters if other countries follow suit.

Liberals: want the existing consumer carbon tax to rise from $40 to $170 by 2030, with much of the revenue rebated to individuals and businesses. There is a separate pricing system for large industry.

NDP: also aim for a consumer carbon tax reaching $170 per tonne by 2030, but will close loopholes" for large industrial polluters.

Green: aim to raise the per-tonne carbon tax $25 per year to $275 by 2030.

Pipelines and oil industries subsidies:

Tories: Leader Erin O'Toole supported and would like to revive the cancelled Northern Gateway pipeline from the oilpatch to the west coast.

Liberals: nixed the Northern Gateway pipeline in 2016 but earned criticism for buying the Trans Mountain Pipeline in order to allow a controversial expansion. The party says Trans Mountain revenue will help fund climate projects and handouts related to oil exploration or production will be phased out by 2025.

NDP: opposed the government decision to buy and expand the Trans Mountain Pipeline, but has not promised to kill the project if it forms government. The NDP has vowed to end subsidies to the oil industry.

Green: vow to cancel all new pipelines and oil subsidies.

Local projects:

Liberals: have put up $1.7 billion to build a 14-kilometre LRT through the lower city, in part based on climate benefits. The party has also offered $400 million to ArcelorMittal Dofasco to phase out coal-fired steelmaking.

Tories: will honour the $400-million pledge to ArcelorMittal Dofasco. The party will also honour the $1.7-billion commitment to public transit" in Hamilton, but did not confirm specific support for the contentious LRT project.

NDP: backs recent federal transit investments in Hamilton, but wants detailed community benefits agreement for LRT. The party has not specified support for the ArcelorMittal investment, which it says was made without a clear plan for how we would protect good jobs or ensure funding from other levels of government."

Green: No response.

Matthew Van Dongen is a Hamilton-based reporter covering transportation for The Spectator. Reach him via email: mvandongen@thespec.com