NFL Week 4 line moves: The bad-team tax

Last week, we pondered what a quarterback was worth to the spread, specifically young quarterbacks either replacing a veteran or being replaced by one.

The market seemed to like Justin Fields replacing an injured Andy Dalton. Whoops. The market seemed to not like Jacoby Brissett in for Tua Tagovailoa. Whoops.

This week's theme will be less about quarterbacks and more about the "bad-team tax" put on some very average rosters against the early-season dregs of the NFL.

Thursday's game will be billed as a meeting between the last two top draft choices, but for bettors, the intrigue is about whether we can get to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites. They were -2.5 in the summer and -6.5 last week, but Cincinnati's road win against the Steelers has pushed it over the key number of -7. My ratings can't get there, though, as I don't think that much of the Bengals' home-field advantage. This should be below -7, and I'll be betting accordingly.

The second game in which a middle-of-the-pack team is elevated above -7 against a winless team. The "Jekyll and Hyde" Saints finally get to play at home in the dome, but that's not reason enough to push them to -8, where this opened.

For the second straight week, the Giants were the better team from a yards-per-play standpoint but couldn't convert in the red zone. Sharp bettors will see that and take the points with New York. Money has since come in on the Giants to knock this down to -7.5, and I anticipate it closing at a flat -7.

There's less hope for the Jets. Like the games above, this line has jumped the key number of -7, but unlike the others, it's due to utterly horrific play from the 0-3 team. New York hasn't been competitive this season, so we'll let it show us something - anything - before we back it. If you can stomach laying over a touchdown with the Titans, then more power to you.

There's jumping -7 and then there's jumping -14, which is where we're at with opponents of the 2021 Texans. My numbers put the Bills at -14, as they were in the summer, but this opened back up at -17.5 on Sunday. Someone out there agrees with my ratings, as it's dipped a point to -16.5. There's not enough of an edge for me to get involved, though.

Wait, the 0-3 team is supposed to see the line move away from them!

Not here.

It turns out that unspeakable quarterback play trumps bad team in this one. The Bears were 6-point favorites in lookahead markets last week, but that was when bettors liked the idea of Fields getting the reins. Now Nick Foles is back from the quarterback netherworld as a potential candidate to start, and the market is horrified.

This is a case of no good options for the Bears, combined with the Lions showing two-to-three quarters of friskiness in each game, which might be enough to get Detroit its first win Sunday.

This one has been a roller coaster. Washington moved from +2.5 in the summer to a -1.5 favorite last week, back to a short underdog on Sunday's re-open, and bet back to a favorite again. This shouldn't come as a surprise, though, as the Falcons' win was far from impressive, and for reasons hard to fathom, Washington has taken enough money to move the line toward it every week so far this season.

You snooze, you lose. After the Rams' big win over the Buccaneers, the market opened with L.A. as 6-point favorites over the Cardinals. That felt high, as I have the Rams 3.9 points better in this situation. Sure enough, on Tuesday afternoon, a group somewhere hit the Cardinals to bring it back down to its summer lookahead price of -4.5. Now we wait to see if Cardinals +6 ever comes back.

The summer lookahead line for this game would suggest the Broncos are a prime candidate for inclusion in our weekly round-robin moneyline underdog parlay, with Denver having been a 2.5-point home 'dog. But now they're favored, so there goes that. It's not hard to understand why, but the Broncos' 3-0 record is built on wins over the three bad teams we opened this column with. A second straight dramatic win Sunday makes this a tougher spot for the Ravens.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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