2021-22 Norris Trophy odds: Can Aaron Ekblad make history?
The last six Norris Trophy recipients have all been first-time winners, and today we're looking at three other defensemen who are good value to extend that run.
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Cale Makar | +350 |
| Adam Fox | +700 |
| Victor Hedman | +700 |
| Charlie McAvoy | +1200 |
| Dougie Hamilton | +1200 |
| Jaccob Slavin | +1700 |
| Miro Heiskanen | +1700 |
| Quinn Hughes | +1700 |
| Roman Josi | +1700 |
| Jared Spurgeon | +2000 |
| Morgan Rielly | +2000 |
| John Carlson | +2000 |
| Shea Theodore | +2000 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | +2000 |
| Ryan Pulock | +2000 |
| Aaron Ekblad | +2000 |
| Devon Toews | +2500 |
| Jeff Petry | +2500 |
| Adam Pelech | +3000 |
| Brent Burns | +3000 |
| Kris Letang | +3000 |
| Torey Krug | +3000 |
| Ryan Ellis | +3000 |
| John Klingberg | +3000 |
| Nate Schmidt | +3000 |
| Drew Doughty | +3500 |
| Jakob Chychrun | +3500 |
| Mark Giordano | +3500 |
| Mackenzie Weegar | +3500 |
| Darnell Nurse | +4000 |
| Matt Dumba | +4000 |
| Josh Morrissey | +4000 |
| Alex Edler | +4000 |
| Matt Grzelcyk | +4000 |
Only listing players with odds 40-1 or shorter.
Dougie Hamilton (+1200)Hamilton doesn't get enough credit for how good he is. Over the last three years at five-on-five, he's led all defensemen in Corsi For rating and expected goals for percentage. He also posted a strong plus-38 goal differential in that span. He's as good as there is in terms of driving play and tilting the ice in his team's favor.
Hamilton is also a remarkably consistent offensive producer. He has scored at least 10 goals in seven consecutive seasons. His overall production has quietly reached new heights, as he's averaged 66 points per 82 games over the last two years.
He is walking into a pretty nice situation in New Jersey, where he'll be the undisputed No. 1 defenseman and play a ton of minutes in all situations. There's plenty of talent to move the puck up to, headlined by former first overall picks Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. And the system is tailor-made for a player like Hamilton; Lindy Ruff is all about playing with pace and will give the green light to Hamilton when it comes to jumping into the play.
If Hamilton has a big offensive season and can help the Devils sneak into the playoffs, he'll garner real consideration for some hardware.
Aaron Ekblad (+2000)Ekblad was the talk of the town in the first half of the COVID-19-shortened 2021 season. He was logging more than 25 minutes per night for the surprisingly good Panthers and scoring goals at a torrid pace, finding the back of the net 11 times in just 35 games.
His season ended prematurely due to injury, but the level at which Ekblad was playing was extremely high, and people were taking notice. He received a lot of the credit for Florida's eye-opening season.
The Panthers are now firmly on everyone's radar and, on paper, could be even better than a year ago. A full season of Sam Bennett - who was fantastic following a change of scenery - and newly acquired Sam Reinhart will make Florida more potent up front. Ekblad's return makes them that much better on defense.
If the 2021-22 version of Ekblad is anything like the guy we saw prior to his injury, he could become the first Panthers player to win the Norris.
Darnell Nurse (+4000)Personally, I think Nurse is a little overrated. That doesn't matter, though because I'm not the one voting on the awards.
On the surface, it's easy to see why so many voters love him. Nurse is a big, strong defender who isn't afraid to throw his weight around, which endears him to a lot of people; so does his ability to handle extreme workloads. Nurse played upward of 26 minutes per game a season ago. Logging big minutes, playing physical, and producing points are all things that get you noticed. Nurse meets the criteria.
While Dave Tippett would probably like to lessen the burden on Nurse - 25-plus minutes is a lot to play over an 82-game season - I'm not sure the Oilers have the horses on defense to make that happen.
Nurse is likely heading for extreme usage once again. Whether he's efficient or not, he's going to put up a bunch of points. Doing so, while playing the physical style many traditionalists gravitate toward, makes him a great value to win the Norris.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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