NHL team point totals: Betting on regression to the middle

When it comes to season-long wagers, less is more. We want to pick our spots before the season to take advantage of any numbers we disagree with through single-game betting early on and put that money back into play.

No one knows which teams will suffer a rash of injuries or bad luck, so finding clubs that have some leeway in their number is the name of the game. You want to bet on teams perceived to be great or horrendous being closer to the league average.

Here are four totals I'd consider betting before puck drop on Oct. 12.

Lightning under 108

We start with the champs. It's assumed the Lightning will be a top-two team this season, with Nikita Kucherov returning and Steven Stamkos presumably healthy. However, I have to bet the under with a 6% edge, according to my numbers. Things probably won't go perfectly for a team that took a hit to its depth this offseason.

Jets under 92.5

The last time we had an 82-game campaign scheduled, it was cut short before the Jets had an opportunity to miss the playoffs despite a Vezina Trophy season from Connor Hellebuyck. Last campaign, Winnipeg pulled some voodoo with four close wins over the Oilers in a sweep where Edmonton averaged 2.82 expected goals to the Jets' 1.98. The Oilers created 15 even-strength high-danger chances per game to the Jets' 9.75.

That's been the story of the Jets for years now, though. They give up a ton of quality chances, and Hellebuyck stops them at an unusually high rate (87.33% while at five-on-five). At the other end, Winnipeg scores at an exceptionally high rate (15.1%) while creating a below-average number of even-strength high-danger chances.

This is bad news for Winnipeg from a predictiveness standpoint and why we might have seen their decisive loss to Montreal in the second round of the playoffs. With 92.5 right around the number the Jets will need to qualify for the postseason, I'll take the under here.

Canucks over 88.5

Things couldn't have gone worse in Vancouver last year. Injury misfortune (Elias Pettersson played only 26 games), the painful drama of a lengthy COVID-19 pause, and self-inflicted wounds like starting Braden Holtby 21 times were among the issues that filled the Canucks' 2020-21 season.

Now Thatcher Demko (2.85 GAA, .915 SV%) will get most of the workload, and additions like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, Jason Dickinson, and maybe Vasily Podkolzin should provide better depth. Meanwhile, there are a couple of additions by subtraction as well, including Nate Schmidt, whose one season in Vancouver didn't go well.

There's positive regression available here for a Canucks team that isn't projected to make the playoffs at this number, and they're in a division with questions from top to bottom.

Predators over 85.5

I've written about the run Juuse Saros went on to end last season, but that's without mentioning the injury issues the Predators had to their defense. While that was rough, it allowed them to build depth organically - guys had to play more minutes than they were ready for. Now, players like Alexandre Carrier and Dante Fabbro can slot in more comfortably, which is key since quality defensive play has been Nashville's calling card for as long as the team's existed.

You could argue that a division with Colorado, St. Louis, and Winnipeg is daunting. However, the Predators just made the playoffs after facing Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina almost half the time, so I'm not worried that the squad won't be able to do what they do - pleasantly surprise everyone. I've got a 9% edge on this number to the over.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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