Why are stadiums and theatres returning to 100% capacity while restaurants and gyms are still restricted? One health expert calls it ‘anti-science’

A growing chorus of health experts and business groups are questioning the recent decision by the Ford government to allow large venues to return to 100 per cent capacity while leaving strict capacity rules in place for bars, restaurants and gyms.

The announcement, which came into effect Friday at midnight, means that large venues where proof of vaccination is required - including movie theatres, concert halls and arenas - can now fill every seat. Masks are recommended but are not required for patrons who are enjoying a cold beer or hot dog in the stands, perplexing many who say such venues are less safe than restaurants where patrons can also remove masks to eat and drink.

Epidemiologist Colin Furness said the announcement doesn't make sense to him.

It's anti-science," said Furness, a professor at the Faculty of Information at the University of Toronto. What you don't want is large gatherings. You want small gatherings."

Furness said that super-spreader events are much more likely to happen at large events and capacity at such venues should be scaled back, while allowing restaurants to increase capacity with extra safety measures, such as testing servers for COVID-19.

Allowing concert halls, arenas and theatres to fill every seat is a bad idea," he said. We're getting there, but ... we're not quite there yet."

Epidemiologist Tim Sly said in an email that large outdoor venues are significantly safer than indoor ones. However, while some of the venues now at 100 per cent capacity are fully or partially outdoors, many are not.

Personally, I would still be cautious at an arena where many people were packed together unmasked," said Sly, adding that he hopes the indoor venues are prepared to verify not only vaccination status but also physical distancing and mask-wearing.

Ontario Ministry of Health spokesperson Alexandra Hilkene said in an email that the capacity limits were lifted based on the advice of the chief medical officer of health.

Public health officials have seen limited transmission in these settings," she said. The chief medical officer of health will continue to monitor the data and evaluate when it may be safe to consider lifting limits in other settings."

Though the province publishes data on COVID-19 outbreaks per setting, it's not clear just how many cases can be traced back to large venues like arenas and theatres.

Other recreational venues - a group that includes concert venues and arenas as well as casinos, public and private transportation, museums and several other settings - have been responsible for 649 cases since July 16. Since the vaccine certificate system began on Sept. 22, these venues have seen 31 cases.

Since July 16, bars, restaurants and nightclubs in Ontario have been responsible for 486 COVID-19 cases. Forty-nine of these cases occurred after the vaccine certificate system began on Sept. 22.

Recreational fitness settings have been responsible for 86 cases since July 16 and just three since Sept. 22.

Furness said the raw case numbers by setting are not enough to determine which venues are safe to open up, as there are other factors at play, and contact tracing isn't absolute.

However, he said the numbers do show that the vaccine certificate program is making public spaces safer.

James Rilett, vice-president for Central Canada for industry group Restaurants Canada, said as the weather gets colder and patios - where the unvaccinated can dine - become less attractive, restaurant operators have been hoping their indoor dining capacity would increase.

We're not operating on an even playing field," said Rilett, likening the situation to almost a year ago, when small businesses were angered by lockdown rules that allowed big-box retailers to sell non-essential items in person while small retailers could not.

Four in five restaurant operators are still barely scraping by or losing money, he said, and the vaccine mandates aren't helping.

According to Restaurants Canada's latest survey of restaurant operators, 60 per cent of restaurants where guests are required to show proof of vaccination have seen their revenue decline. For 40 per cent, it's significantly decreased.

More than half of respondents where guests must show proof of vaccination said they have had to keep higher staffing levels to enforce the new rules. Half said their staff are dealing with hostility from people opposed to the new rules and many are dealing with backlash on social media as well.

That doesn't mean restaurant operators are anti-vaccine-passport, noted Rilett. They just want to be treated fairly.

Paul Bognar, president and COO of restaurant operations group Service Inspired Restaurants, which owns and operates franchises including Jack Astor's, Scaddabush and Canyon Creek, said revenue at his restaurants has been down 20 to 25 per cent since the vaccine certificate system began.

It's extremely concerning," he said, and he's worried it will only get worse as the weather gets colder.

The announcement on Friday was another blow for Bognar, who couldn't understand how sports fans eating, drinking and cheering shoulder to shoulder could be deemed safer than his restaurants, where indoor diners sit separated by Plexiglas and two metres of space.

We're extremely disappointed, on the verge of angry," said Bognar. At what point does common sense come into play?"

Ryan Mallough, director of provincial affairs for Ontario for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said small business owners are frustrated at having to operate under a different set of rules without a good explanation as to why.

What is it that these huge venues are doing or able to do that small businesses can't?" asked Mallough. It's a tough pill to swallow."

In a statement Tuesday, Ontario Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Rocco Rossi called for the government to release the health metrics that drove the capacity limit announcement.

Lifting capacity limits for some businesses and not others, without presenting data, public health indicators or a clear rationale has left many in the business community completely frustrated."

Ian Smith, owner of Orangetheory Fitness's Fort York location, said he doesn't believe Friday's announcement had a scientific basis.

It's painfully obvious," he said.

Smith said the fact that arenas and other large venues are back to 100 per cent capacity is a great sign of where the province is in terms of vaccination numbers and cases. But he doesn't understand why small venues are being left behind.

It's a huge, huge oversight," he said.

There's going to be more people this week in the washrooms of Scotiabank Arena than there is in many gyms and restaurants around the city."

Rosa Saba is a Toronto-based business reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @rosajsaba