NFL Week 6 round-robin moneyline parlay: Are there 5 to find?
We swung big last week. And like mighty Casey in the famous poem, we struck out.
The Miami Dolphins gave us early hope with a 10-7 lead, but like many times before, Tom Brady stomped on that feeling. Call it solace, or the challenge of trying this every week, but only three underdogs won outright last week. I'm no math whiz, but it seems quite difficult to win five underdog moneylines when there are only three to find.
One of those successful underdogs were the Buffalo Bills, who weren't long enough for us to really want to add to our football betting lottery ticket, and the other two were teams from our list (Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles). I'm not saying Trey Lance should have penetrated the wall of humanity waiting for him on the goal line against the Arizona Cardinals, but it would have been cool if he did. So we go cashless in Week 5, and the season-long record moves to 15-10 on straight-up winners and over 25 units.
How it worksWe parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win like they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.
Who to playJacksonville Jaguars +160
We went overseas with our upset of the week, which hopefully goes better than the experience of watching the New York Jets in the first half of their London trip last week. The premise remains the same, though, as we wonder whether anyone playing the Dolphins right now should be at a price of +150 or better. Even if they literally never win. If not now for the Jaguars ... when?
Detroit Lions +160
While Dan Campbell was left thoroughly disappointed, survivor players everywhere cried tears of joy after another close call went the wrong way for the Lions. It's going to happen sooner than later for Detroit, which has to be at least taken seriously as a competitor. The Cincinnati Bengals haven't earned the right to be assumed victors, on the road or otherwise. So we'll include Detroit here, and maybe we'll all be crying happy tears Sunday.
Houston Texans +325
We're doing this again with a (near) double-digit underdog? Yes, but at least the favorite in question isn't quarterbacked by the GOAT. Would you rather take the Eagles on Thursday night? How about the Bears against Aaron Rodgers?
At least we're taking a team that probably should have won last week in a similar spot when Davis Mills played the best game of his brief career. It shouldn't be a surprise that the rookie would improve with reps, especially considering he was thrown into the fire against the Cleveland Browns, had a short week to prepare for his first career start, and then had to deal with the Bills in the Buffalo rain.
More importantly, we're taking a shot against a middle-of-the-pack team on a short week with a quarterback who has a history of turning the ball over. There was a moment last week when a big underdog on the road against a mediocre team was a very realistic win, but the Lions left the Minnesota Vikings with a little too much time. I'm less afraid of heroics from Carson Wentz, should it come to that.
New England Patriots +175
Back and forth we go, backing the underdog in games involving the Patriots. They're built to play tight, low-scoring games, which often makes the underdog live, whether it's them or their opponent. Though it's not fun fading the Dallas Cowboys, we're willing to see at +175 if the Patriots can slow down Dak Prescott like they did Tom Brady two weeks ago, and maybe a late field-goal attempt will find its way through the uprights.
Tennessee Titans +210
This may be less fun than the previous two. Like strolling into the street with a bus oncoming, we'll take the home underdogs on Monday night. The Bills' run defense can be exploited, and Derrick Henry has certainly exploited his fair share of defenses. On the other side, the Titans might actually be better equipped to stop Josh Allen and Co. than the Kansas City Chiefs were. Throw in the possible return of Julio Jones and we may have a shootout on our hands. In a possible letdown spot, with a second straight road prime-time game, the Titans could find themselves with a lead early, and they have the tools to hold onto it late.
Here's how the odds shake down this week:
| PARLAY | ODDS (Approx.) |
|---|---|
| JAX+DET+HOU | +3000 |
| JAX+DET+NE | +1700 |
| JAX+DET+TEN | +2000 |
| JAX+HOU+NE | +3000 |
| JAX+HOU+TEN | +3500 |
| JAX+NE+TEN | +2000 |
| DET+HOU+NE | +3000 |
| DET+HOU+TEN | +3500 |
| DET+NE+TEN | +2000 |
| HOU+NE+TEN | +3600 |
| JAX+DET+HOU+NE+TEN | +25000 |
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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