NFL Week 8 best bets: Time running out to fade Mills, Texans' offense
We nailed our pick of the Tennessee Titans (+4.5) to upset the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 but narrowly fell short on our other two plays. Here are our favorite plays for Week 8:
Dolphins at Bills (-14, 48.5)Oct. 31, 1 p.m. ET
The Miami Dolphins have played three teams this year that currently own a winning record. They lost those three contests by a combined 66 points - including a 35-0 home loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 - and are wholly overmatched in this one against a surging division rival.
Buffalo's offense ranks second in points per game (33.8) and points per drive (2.97) this season, scoring at least 31 points in five straight games before a Week 7 bye. The Bills will be well-prepared to exploit a flimsy Dolphins defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense (29.6 PPG) and dead last in hurry rate (4.8%) despite blitzing nearly 33% of the time.
That's a dangerous combination against Josh Allen and Co., who will shred Miami if it brings extra defenders to no avail. The only way this game stays close is if Tua Tagovailoa can sustain his recent play against the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense (16.3 PPG). Given everything swirling around the Dolphins and their quarterback, I wouldn't bet on the sharpest performance on Sunday.
Pick: Bills -14
Rams (-16, 46.5) at TexansOct. 31, 1 p.m.
After some initial optimism that Tyrod Taylor could return Sunday, the Houston Texans are instead sticking with Davis Mills for at least another game. That likely means just one more week to fade this abhorrent offense with the rookie at the helm.
Since Mills made his first start in Week 3, the Texans have averaged a meager 7.8 points and scored fewer than 10 in four of those five contests, including three games in which they failed to score a touchdown. That's laughably bad in its own right, but it's even more daunting ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, who have forced eight turnovers and allowed only 15.7 points per game over their last three contests.
Mills is tied for the sixth-most turnovers on the season despite playing just five full games thus far. He'll be lucky to guide this team to a pair of touchdowns after being held out of the end zone in each of the last two weeks.
Pick: Texans under 14.5 points
Giants at Chiefs (-9.5, 52)Nov. 1, 8:15 p.m.
The Chiefs are a bad football team right now, and it's time for bettors to start pricing them as one. Kansas City ranks dead last in yards allowed per drive (41.3), points allowed per drive (2.93), and drive success rate (79.3%), and it's turned the ball over an NFL-worst 17 times with a minus-10 turnover differential.
Even the most efficient offense in the league isn't enough to offset those defensive deficiencies and turnover issues, and this simply isn't the NFL's best offense anymore. The Chiefs scored three points a week ago and are battling injuries to nearly every key player, and their revamped offensive line has fallen short of expectations.
The New York Giants aren't exactly world-beaters, but they're coming off a 22-point drubbing of the Carolina Panthers and are competent enough on defense to withstand a potential Chiefs rally. And until Kansas City shows any signs of life on defense, I simply can't justify laying a big number on this below-.500 squad.
Pick: Giants +9.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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