NHL Saturday best bets: Bruins, Kings to rebound at home

Saturday features a packed NHL card: 10 games headlined by a heavyweight clash between the Panthers and Bruins.

Let's explore some of our best bets.

The Bruins own a pedestrian 3-3-0 record, but make no mistake - they remain a very good team.

As usual, Boston has had no problem dictating the run of play at five-on-five. Its share of expected goals sits at 55.66%, behind only the Capitals, Wild, and Penguins. Those three teams own a combined record of 13-4-5; good company to be keeping.

The Bruins deserve better results than they've garnered, especially defensively. They sit 24th in goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five despite ranking first in expected goals against. They aren't giving up much. Sooner or later, they'll be rewarded.

Florida, meanwhile, is an extremely dangerous team. That's especially true with Sergei Bobrovsky looking far more dependable than predicted. But the NHL's leader in goals saved above expected won't start tonight in a very bad spot for the Panthers.

Both teams are playing their third game in four nights, but Boston was idle Friday while Florida played a taxing overtime road game against the Red Wings.

Though they're obviously performing well, the Panthers have taken things to extremes amid their 8-0-0 start. Their expected goal differential at five-on-five is approximately plus-2. Their actual goal differential is plus-11.

Boston is playing better than its record indicates, while Florida isn't as invincible as it seems. We like the Bruins to hand the Panthers their first loss.

Bet: Bruins -130

The Kings own a 1-5-1 record and are without two of their best defenders in Drew Doughty and Sean Walker. Even so, this line sells them a bit short.

Los Angeles ranks 10th in expected goal share and owns an even goal differential at five-on-five. That's impressive considering its poor record.

The Kings' biggest issue, by and large, has been their play on special teams. The power play has been inconsistent, and only the Coyotes have given up goals at a higher rate while shorthanded.

It just so happens that the Canadiens are a lesser five-on-five team and comparably bad on special teams. Montreal has scored only three goals in 46 power-play minutes - the team is essentially three-for-23 on the season - and struggled on the penalty kill. Conversely, only four teams have spent more time shorthanded, and that inability to stay out of the box has highlighted Montreal's penalty-killing issues.

Put simply, the Kings look like the better five-on-five squad and - despite their own struggles - aren't any worse than their opponents when it comes to special teams.

Cal Petersen is expected to start in goal for Los Angeles, and it seems he's a clear upgrade over Jonathan Quick at this point in the latter's career.

Montreal, meanwhile, will either continue overworking Jake Allen with his eighth start in nine games or turn to Sam Montembeault and his .890 career save percentage.

Whatever the case may be, the Kings are worth backing tonight on home ice.

Bet: Kings -115

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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