Councillors (un)decided on Hamilton’s urban boundary

City staff are sticking to their guns: Expand Hamilton's urban footprint to handle growth over the next 30 years.

The recommendation to council to free up roughly 1,300 hectares of rural land in 10-year phases comes with fresh reports added to an already thick file of material.

Council will consider the hundreds of pages of staff and consultants' analysis on Nov. 9 as the hotly debated growth-planning exercise lurches on.

But some city politicians have already stated their positions as anti-sprawl campaigners and pro-expansion developers compete for their attention.

That includes Coun. Arlene VanderBeek, who says she won't support the urban-boundary expansion.

I think that we can be more creative at this point than impinging on prime agricultural land," the Dundas councillor said Friday.

Some, city politicians, however, say they haven't made their minds up yet.

I'm still undecided," Coun. Lloyd Ferguson said.

But the Ancaster councillor added he regularly fields complaints about traffic congestion on Wilson Street and denser housing like condos.

That's the pushback to the stay-pat option." he said, referring to the frozen-boundary scenario. And so I'm hearing that loud and clear."

How Hamilton should grow presents a host of crucial considerations for the city, including carbon emissions, farmland, neighbourhood fabric, transportation and municipal costs.

The Ontario government has told cities to plan for growth until 2051 by using a disputed market-based approach that predicts demand for various types of housing, ranging from single-family homes to townhouses and apartments.

• In Hamilton's case, provincial growth projections - another source of debate - forecast 236,000 more people, hiking the population to 820,000.

• The Ontario government has told municipalities to direct at least 50 per cent of future housing into built-up areas through intensification and denser housing types over the next 30 years.

• The city must submit an updated official plan that reflects its growth strategy to the province by July 2022.

• Hamilton city planners favour an ambitious density" approach with an average intensification target of 60 per cent that calls for an urban expansion of 1,310 hectares into rural land in Elfrida and Glanbrook.

• Staff also recommend an interim boundary expansion" of 305 hectares to 2031 with policies that ensure any future" urban growth is controlled and phased."

• That means a consideration of options" to identify growth needs beyond 2031 without formally designating the land as urban at this time." Future phases identify expansions of 570 hectares from 2031 to 2041 and 435 hectares from 2041 to 2051.

• A boundary freeze, meanwhile, would demand an intensification rate of about 81 per cent over 30 years.

• City-hired consultant Lorius and Associates has advised the city that market demand for apartments to achieve that target in Hamilton is unlikely."

• Based on that assessment, and signalling from Ontario officials, city staff have warned the no-expansion scenario may not accord with the province's market-based marching orders.

Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Steve Clark reinforced that message by calling the frozen-boundary option unrealistic" and irresponsible" in a recent Spectator op-ed that left some city politicians outraged.

Clark's position mirrored the position a local association of developers has advanced about adequate housing mix.

Mike Collins-Williams, CEO of the West End Home Builders' Association (WEHBA), has said without the necessary supply of housing, we're going to lose people, families and talents to other parts of Canada."

But other planning experts contend Hamilton can meet provincial targets by tweaking zoning policies to allow greater density in the existing urban area.

Coun. John-Paul Danko agrees, noting a lot of progress" on zoning changes but still more to do on how to accommodate that intensification."

The Mountain councillor added developers are typically building 2,500-square-foot, single-family homes. What is the potential there if we just build smaller and better than we have?"

A city survey this past summer showed 90.4 per cent - or 16,636 of 18,387 respondents - favoured a frozen boundary over the city's ambitious density" plan.

That result and a Nanos Research telephone survey commissioned by WEHBA and realtor associations that found 38 per cent of 700 respondents supported expansion are both fair game," Coun. Jason Farr said.

But the downtown councillor says he won't decide on the matter until he delves into the most recent documents and considers information on Nov. 9.

Up for discussion is an evaluation framework" of the expansion and fixed-boundary scenarios, which Lynda Lukasik, executive director of Environment Hamilton, says doesn't adequately assess sprawl's impact on the climate crisis.

It's not unreasonable for all of us as community members, and I would argue for elected officials, too, to be demanding rigorous assessment."

Public consultation on the city's preferred growth option is planned for next year. City council is expected to give final approval of the new official plan in the summer of 2022 ahead of its submission to the province.

Teviah Moro is a Hamilton-based reporter at The Spectator. Reach him via email: tmoro@thespec.com