NFL Week 9 O/U best bets: Can Chiefs' offense justify sky-high total?

We slogged through another 1-2 week after the Texans' offense came alive in the fourth quarter to spoil a worthwhile under bet. Here are our favorite total plays for Week 9.

Assuming Taysom Hill can clear concussion protocol, all signs point to him taking the reins at quarterback for the Saints after Jameis Winston's season-ending injury. If he does, it will be a boon for under bettors.

New Orleans went 3-1 to the under in his four full starts a year ago - the one over came by 0.5 points - averaging 208.5 passing yards with five turnovers in those four contests. These Saints don't turn it over as much as he did in 2020, but they've averaged a mere 180.9 passing yards en route to a 4-3 mark to the under.

Much of that mark can be credited to New Orleans' fourth-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG), which held the Buccaneers to one of their worst showings a week ago. The Falcons are averaging just 15.3 points against defenses ranked outside the bottom six in points allowed and will struggle to carry this one over.

Pick: Under 42.5

Until the Panthers welcome back Christian McCaffrey, they'll be one of the easiest under bets to make each week. Carolina's defense ranks fifth in average points allowed (19.9) and eighth in DVOA, but its offense has been the real culprit, managing just 19.2 points per game without its star back.

It's added up to a tasty 6-2 record to the under, and the Panthers are due for another against a Patriots team built on a top-10 defense and enough offensive weapons to get by. Save for a 54-point explosion against the Jets, New England hasn't scored 30 points in a game this season, but it's also held six of its first eight opponents to 24 points or fewer.

Pick: Under 41

Is there anything more consistent right now than the Packers' offense? This group has scored between 24 and 27 points in each of the past five weeks behind a steady mix of short passes and the occasional deep shot.

The bigger question - and the reason why this total is so high - is whether the Chiefs' offense can match or exceed those marks. At this point, there's little evidence to suggest they will. After two more turnovers Monday, Kansas City has now coughed it up an NFL-worst 19 times through eight weeks and is averaging 18.5 points over its last four contests.

Patrick Mahomes and Co. won't face an easy test this week against Green Bay's defense, which is holding teams to 16.8 points per game across the past five weeks. These two teams could erupt for 40 at any time, but the smarter play is fading a total that's priced on upside and not evidence.

Pick: Under 54.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.