Can history teach us anything about the future of war – and peace?

A decade on from psychologist Steven Pinker's declaration that violence is declining, historians show no sign of agreeing a truce

Ten years ago, the psychologist Steven Pinker published The Better Angels of Our Nature, in which he argued that violence in almost all its forms - including war - was declining. The book was ecstatically received in many quarters, but then came the backlash, which shows no signs of abating. In September, 17 historians published a riposte to Pinker, suitably entitled The Darker Angels of Our Nature, in which they attacked his fake history" to debunk the myth of non-violent modernity". Some may see this as a storm in an intellectual teacup, but the central question - can we learn anything about the future of warfare from the ancient past? - remains an important one.

Pinker thought we could and he supported his claim of a long decline with data stretching thousands of years back into prehistory. But among his critics are those who say that warfare between modern nation states, which are only a few hundred years old, has nothing in common with conflict before that time, and therefore it's too soon to say if the supposed long peace" we've been enjoying since the end of the second world war is a blip or a sustained trend.