Bears-Steelers best bets: A slugfest on MNF

Winners of three straight, the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to stay hot Monday night against a Chicago Bears team desperate to stop the bleeding and avoid a fourth successive defeat.

Here's how we're betting Bears-Steelers:

C Jackson Cowart: Under 39

It's hard to imagine a better matchup for under bettors than this one, which pits two uninspiring offenses against defenses with the talent to turn this into a slugfest.

The Steelers have a winning record this year in spite of a wholly ineffective offense, which entered this week ranked in the bottom eight in points per game (18.9), points per drive (1.74), and yards per drive (31.4). They've scored 17 points or fewer in four of their seven contests this season, and it would've been five if not for a blocked-punt touchdown in the season opener.

The Bears' offense has been even worse, ranking second last in average points (15.4) with an even lower per-game mark (14.8) in Justin Fields' six starts. He's been one of the NFL's worst passers under pressure, which is concerning against a Pittsburgh defense ranked third in pressure rate (28.6%) and hurry rate (15.2%).

I also love targeting the under on games that profile as clear low-scoring affairs since oddsmakers can only set the total so low. Since 2014, contests with a total of 39 or lower are 46-31-1 (59.7%) to the under, including 4-1-1 in games involving the Steelers. Expect both runs to continue Monday.

Alex Moretto: Najee Harris over 79.5 rush yards

My leans align with both Jackson and Matt here, on the under and the Bears, respectively, but they aren't all that strong. Historically, this is a bad spot for Mike Tomlin's Steelers from an against-the-spread perspective. But I think this Chicago team might be even worse than we realize despite the team showing signs of life offensively. That's enough to keep me off the Bears, while the potential for short fields off turnovers, David Montgomery's return, and the absence of Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson will keep me away from the under.

Instead, I'll get behind this rapidly improving Steelers offensive line against a shorthanded Bears defense. I mentioned earlier this week I liked the value on Najee Harris (50-1) to lead the league in rushing. He's getting better by the week, and Pittsburgh isn't shying away from giving him a massive workload, especially with Ben Roethlisberger struggling. Additionally, Harris is making the most of his opportunities. Now, he gets a Bears defense that's been gashed on the ground all season, but especially over Chicago's recent three-game skid.

WEEK	PLAYER	TEAM	CARRIES	YARDS
8	Elijah Mitchell	SF	18	137
7	Leonard Fournette	TB	15	81
7	Ronald Jones	TB	10	63
6	Aaron Jones	GB	13	76
6	A.J. Dillon	GB	11	59

Unlike the Bucs' and Packers' backs, Harris has the backfield all to himself. An 80-yard day on the ground is closer to the floor against this defense should he see the 23-26 carries he's been getting over the past three weeks.

Matt Russell: Bears +6.5

This is an easy bet to make and a hard bet to win. It doesn't have the same ring to it as "If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball," but if you can almost lose to Geno Smith, you can almost lose to Fields.

At the end of the day, this is just too many points for a frustrating Steelers offense and a defense that's relied on to do too much. Plus, the Bears can give Ben Roethlisberger just as many problems as the Steelers can to Fields.

This game feels like it's going to come down to a field goal or a defensive stop. In that case, we'll be thrilled to have nearly a touchdown in our pocket.

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