NHL Wednesday best bets: Stars to rebound at home

It was a tough night for us on the ice Tuesday. The Bruins were unable to convert on several empty-net opportunities to seal a multi-goal victory. Meanwhile, the Kraken disappointed us once again due to poor goaltending, with Chris Driedger conceding four goals on just 23 shots (.826 save percentage) in a 4-2 loss.

We'll aim to bounce back with our best bets for tonight's three-game slate.

The Stars enter this game having dropped five of their last six contests, but they're playing significantly better than the results would indicate.

At five-on-five, Dallas has out-chanced its opposition by 31 during this losing skid. The team has controlled 55.6% of the chances and 54.9% of the expected goals. Those are encouraging signs for their underlying process, but they just haven't been able to score.

Despite getting John Klingberg and Jason Robertson back healthy, the Stars have been unable to finish anything, scoring on just 4.5% of their five-on-five shots over the last six games.

Put another way, opposing goaltenders posted a .955 save percentage against Dallas. Even if they're a subpar finishing team, that's simply not going to last.

At some point, the chances will start to go. What's important is they continue to create more than they give up.

I like their chances of doing just that against the Predators. Their share of the xG is trending downward and things aren't going to get any easier with forwards Filip Forsberg and Nick Cousins now out with injuries.

This seems like a good get-right spot for the Stars at home, especially if Juuse Saros doesn't get the nod for Nashville. He's been one of the best goaltenders since the beginning of last season, while David Rittich's a mediocre backup who appears to have peaked in 2018-19. Rittich hasn't started a game this year, so this seems like a probable spot for his debut.

Bet: Stars (-140)

The Maple Leafs are annoyingly inconsistent at times, but this is a good matchup for them to bounce back after laying an egg on Monday night.

For all of its faults, Toronto is still an elite offensive team. The Leafs are among the very best at generating shots and scoring chances in bulk.

They rank second in shot attempts at five-on-five per 60 and first in high-danger chances per 60. The quantity and quality are there.

The Flyers are off to a strong start, but there's reason to believe it's just smoke and mirrors. They rank fifth in shooting percentage and third in save percentage, which has masked a lot of their problems, particularly on defense.

Life without Ryan Ellis hasn't been pleasant, and he remains out for tonight's game. Philadelphia ranks 27th in expected goals against per 60 and 28th in high-danger chances against.

So, a Flyers team that bleeds dangerous looks is going up against the league's best at generating high-danger chances. That's not a recipe for success for Philadelphia.

John Tavares' status is in question following an injury Monday night. If you want to wait for an update before pulling the trigger, by all means, do so.

But I think the Flyers have punched above their weight and expect them to come back to earth - at least to an extent - sooner rather than later.

Bet: Maple Leafs -130

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.