TNF player props: Lamar Jackson looks to run, run, run away

We are rocking and rolling on Thursday nights through our first two editions of the player prop deep dive.

We're going to channel the Talking Heads for this week's TNF matchup at Hard Rock Stadium. We're not talking about the heads who'll finally be touting Lamar Jackson as an MVP candidate on the pregame shows. Instead, we'll focus on the new wave rock band of the 1970s and '80s. Thankfully, watching the Ravens' new-wave offense against a vulnerable defense won't be a "Once in a Lifetime" experience. When their offense is clicking, Jackson leaves defenders asking themselves, "How did I get here?"

Burning down the house

Jackson's no "Psycho Killer," but he's made a habit of ripping out opponents' hearts when coach John Harbaugh puts the ball in his hands in high-leverage situations. Maybe you'll ask me to "Stop Making Sense," but it's Jackson's downfield weapons who should take advantage of the Dolphins since the quarterback will be the obvious focal point.

Mark Andrews' production has dipped a little bit this season, causing his yardage prop to fall into a range that must be bet, especially against a Miami team allowing 12.2 yards per reception to opposing tight ends this season, including a 163-yard performance by Kyle Pitts. Look for Andrews to get open more than once beyond the linebacker level, with Jackson upping the opportunities for his favorite target, and it's feeling "the same as it ever was."

Pick: Mark Andrews over 49.5 receiving yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

I'll forget that this subtitle is meant as sarcasm if we hit one more of these bets, and I'll be insisting that "This Must Be The Place" for TNF betting glory. That said, it won't be shocking if Jackson takes one in for a touchdown against the Dolphins.

With Latavius Murray likely still out Thursday, the Ravens are missing the bruising goal-line back who would be ideal for Jackson to just handoff to. However, the signal-caller isn't shy with keeping the ball and finding his way for a score, especially in prime-time games. At the very least, he'll have an opportunity to score from in close, and, as always, he's a threat to take one into the blue (painted end zone) from distance.

Pick: Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown +100

A TD that won't happen ... but maybe it does

Our long-shot touchdown bet has been a "Road to Nowhere" the last two weeks, but it'll still end up profitable overall if we can score one by the end of the season.

Like last week, we'll try a player who scored a touchdown the previous week at a big payout to do it again five days later. The Ravens ran a play for Patrick Ricard at the goal line last week, and he rewarded them with a nice catch for a touchdown. There were at least two other instances when he was the primary receiver on plays designed to get him the ball in space. Also, we just mentioned that Baltimore doesn't have a bruising 'back to take a carry at the 1-yard line, so Ricard could provide that option too.

Pick: Patrick Ricard anytime touchdown +1200

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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