Housing minister has ‘final say’ on Hamilton’s urban boundary question

The city plans to handle growth over the next 30 years within Hamilton's existing urban footprint, but Ontario's top official on the file isn't convinced.

Two weeks ago, council voted 13-3 not to expand the urban boundary into farmland but instead to focus on the built-up area.

Planning staff are expected to report back with a draft official plan that reflects the no-expansion approach by January.

But last week, Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Steve Clark aired his reservations on that decision.

My message to Hamiltonians is all options are still on the table," he told the Empire Club of Canada.

City studies show the existing urban area can't accommodate the 236,000 people forecast to flock to Hamilton by 2051, he added.

I speak to the people of Hamilton that want to realize the dream of home ownership, and those people need a boundary expansion," Clark said, pointing to a severe" supply crunch.

His message came after months of debate and thousands of public submissions to council over a pile of staff and consultants' studies.

The ministry has told municipalities to update their official plans by July 2022 to reflect growth targets to 2051.

City staff recommended an ambitious density" approach that called for a phased urban expansion of 3,240 acres into prime agricultural land.

That option, informed by a consultant's analysis, was partly rooted in the province's market-based approach to land-needs assessment, which examines expected demand for different types of housing.

In September, a ministry letter pointed to city studies that suggested a frozen boundary would result in a shortfall of nearly 60,000 ground-related" housing units like single-detached homes or townhouses.

The ministry also said Hamilton was unlikely to achieve the necessary level of apartment unit construction" to meet the expected demand for housing.

Then, in an op-ed published in The Spectator, Clark called the city's exploration of a firm boundary irresponsible" and unrealistic."

But on Nov. 19, council - responding to thousands of calls to not pave over farmland amid a climate crisis and mounting municipal infrastructure costs - rejected expansion.

In turn, outside planning experts have insisted Hamilton can accommodate future growth in a healthy mix of housing types through urban infill.

Determining future housing demand and supply is a municipal responsibility, but as minister, Clark has a lot of discretion" to override council's decision, says Victor Doyle, a former provincial planner.

He has the final say. The buck stops there," said Doyle, who led the creation of Ontario's Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Growth Plan.

Consider Clark's draconian" imposition of hundreds of changes to Toronto land-use plans in 2019, which allowed for denser and taller development without local consultation, he said.

Doyle argues the province's approach to growth, including a policy that forces municipalities to plan 30 years in advance, is designed to promote low-density sprawl" in response to pressure from the development industry.

They're doing it to try and set this stuff in stone and get as much land included in the urban boundary now, regardless of how long it takes to be developed."

On Wednesday, Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk's office released a report that concluded numerous changes" in land-use policies, insufficient collaboration" between the ministry and other entities, and minister's zoning orders have undermined the goals" of the Growth Plan.

Clark's office didn't respond to The Spectator's interview requests.

Coun. Jason Farr - one of the 13 who supported a frozen urban boundary - said the minister's Empire Club remarks were nowhere near as pointed" as the op-ed, but there's still a feeling he'll do whatever it takes ... as quickly as possible."

If council approves the draft official plan in January, it will be offered to the ministry, along with the general public and specific groups, for feedback.

They'll see a series of technical amendments, such as extending the planning horizon from 2031 to 2051, and higher-level" intensification policies for different parts of the city, notes planning director Steve Robichaud.

By April, Robichaud noted, the city should have the province's comments, potentially marking another pivotal decision point.

The first thing is, will the province agree that the city's going to accommodate all the growth within the urban area?"

Depending on the response, council will either have to reconfirm its position or alter its position."

Coun. John-Paul Danko said a change in course would require a two-thirds vote, which he doesn't expect will happen.

The ministry shouldn't prejudge the plan before the entire thing is submitted to them," Danko added.

Council will have to sign off on a revised official plan in June to submit to the province in July for approval.

Teviah Moro is a Hamilton-based reporter at The Spectator. Reach him via email: tmoro@thespec.com