Broncos-Chiefs best bets: How we're betting Sunday Night Football

Patrick Mahomes will look to improve to 8-0 against the Broncos when the Chiefs welcome them to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night for a crucial AFC West clash.

Here's how we're betting Broncos-Chiefs:

C Jackson Cowart: Broncos +9.5

Pricing the Chiefs as nearly 10 points better than their division rivals would have been perfectly reasonable a year ago. But are we sure this team deserves it, especially after losing against the spread in seven of its first 11 games as a favorite?

Kansas City has won four straight on the back of an improved defense that's held each of its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. But the offense has topped 20 points just once in that span. The Broncos, meanwhile, have held four of their last five opponents to 17 points or fewer despite their own offensive inconsistencies.

It all came together for Denver in last week's dominant win over the Chargers, whom the Broncos outscored 28-7 until a late L.A. touchdown padded the scoreboard. If rising star Patrick Surtain can bait a suddenly turnover-prone Mahomes into a mistake or two Sunday, the Chiefs will have a hard time running away with this one.

Alex Moretto: Under 47

This is the first of two fascinating AFC division races taking center stage in prime time this week, and a four-way tie at the top after this contest isn't out of the question. This will be an excellent game - but don't expect fireworks.

The Chiefs' revived defense is playing drastically better, and I expect that to continue out of the bye. The Broncos are looking better, too, generating more pressure and remaining stingy in the secondary. Kansas City's recipe for offensive success involves a lot of running, and the same is true for Denver.

That's how the Broncos typically operate, anyway - moving up and down the field in small chunks - and it will be important in keeping Mahomes on the sideline. Explosive plays will be at a premium in this one, with any scoring drives chewing up plenty of time.

Matt Russell: Broncos +9.5

Teddy Bridgewater's incredible record as an underdog might guide the way here. In fact, it's his game against the Chiefs last season that gives me confidence, though that performance didn't come in Broncos orange. The Panthers were double-digit underdogs going into Arrowhead Stadium last December, but Bridgewater did what he does best, engineering long drives, burning the clock, and limiting possessions in a game that came down to a field-goal attempt.

The Broncos showed last season their defensive design works well against the Chiefs, forcing five Harrison Butker field goals in their visit to Kansas City. They covered that game with Drew Lock at the helm; if the underdog GOAT is under center, I can't pass on Denver in what seems like a defensive matchup.

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