NFL Week 14 O/U best bets: Back dominant Chiefs D in divisional rematch

We finished 1-2 on our NFL totals a week ago thanks to a flurry of irrelevant scoring between the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears in what was supposed to be a game marred by bad weather. So much for the assist from Mother Nature.

Here are our best bets for Week 14:

This Baltimore Ravens' offense is running out of excuses for its poor play, and at a certain point, we should take its production at face value. Baltimore has scored 19 or fewer points in four straight weeks, while quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions in that span.

The last time we saw the Cleveland Browns was in their 16-10 loss to the Ravens in Week 12, which marked the seventh time in their last nine games that they scored 17 or fewer points. Cleveland ranks in the bottom 10 in scoring (18.7 PPG) since the start of October, while the Ravens (22.2) haven't been much better. This profiles as a classic first-to-20 type of contest that we've seen so often in the AFC North.

Pick: Under 42

It's always a bit unsettling betting against Patrick Mahomes, either against the spread or on the total. But we've simply seen too many dominant performances by this Kansas City Chiefs defense to ignore the value on the under.

Since the start of November, Kansas City has allowed just 11.2 points per game - the third-fewest in the NFL - thanks in part to a resurgent pass rush that has recorded 12 sacks in those five games. It hasn't come against an easy schedule, either: the Chiefs held the Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Dallas Cowboys to a combined 30 points to close out November before limiting the Denver Broncos to a mere nine points a week ago.

Yes, Las Vegas' defense is a concern, especially after it allowed 41 points to the Chiefs the last time they met. But don't expect an encore: since 2017, teams that score at least 41 points in the first meeting have averaged 24.4 points in the rematch, with 10 of those 18 games going under.

Pick: Under 48

Which of these two offenses do you trust to score on Sunday? Is it the team with an injured quarterback and no semblance of a run game, or the one with a rookie quarterback coming off a shutout?

If it wasn't for a 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt, the Seattle Seahawks would have finished with fewer than 270 total yards for the sixth consecutive game, which aligns almost perfectly with Russell Wilson's finger injury. He's averaged just 211.5 passing yards with a combined four touchdowns, three interceptions, and three fumbles since returning to action, leading his team to a pedestrian 14.5 points per game in those four starts.

That's still better than what likely Houston Texans starter Davis Mills has done in eight games, during which he's tallied seven touchdowns with eight interceptions and a brutal 30.4 QBR, which ranks 30th out of 32 qualified passers. Houston has gone under in eight of its last 10, while Seattle is 9-2-1 to the under on the year. Both marks will improve on Sunday.

Pick: Under 41.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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