NFL Week 15 teasers: Backing playoff contenders to keep things close

Week 14 was a clean sweep. We've shown that teasers can be profitable when done correctly, whether it's through our six teaser legs or having the Bengals join the fray midweek - when they moved to +1.5/+2 and could be teased through the key +7 number.

While less flashy than moneyline underdogs or a gaudy ATS record, we can still find success with teasers in the season's final quarter because we want the base point spread to be as accurate as possible.

The more accurate a game line, the closer the score is to its spread, making a teaser leg more likely to cash. As always, we'll try to focus on matchups with a tighter range of outcomes for the most profit.

Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: A tie. So how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?

Let's use the Seahawks' visit to the Rams on Sunday as an example:

The alternative spread gives you the Rams -2.5 at -270. Would you rather have that or the -1 that a teaser leg provides at the same price? What about Rams -1 at -270 versus the moneyline of -320?

The answers are obvious, but if you like Los Angeles to win outright, you need some options to pair with Rams -1. We can turn to the teaser basket for the best options to capture as many key numbers as possible.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 15:

While not a traditional Wong teaser leg, getting double digits in Thursday night's showdown for the AFC West gathers up all of the one-score options. It even keeps Chargers +10 for a push if there's a late field goal to stretch it to two scores.

The Browns can drop down to PK, which is somewhat scary given how little even Cleveland seems to trust Baker Mayfield. Taking the Dolphins and 49ers down to -2.5 is mathematically viable, but I think both teams are a little overvalued in the current line.

As you likely know by now, my favorite teaser leg is taking a tightly lined game and teasing it up over a full touchdown. You can rely on the Patriots, Steelers, and Bengals to play to the final gun, and they're all certainly live to win outright, so that's where I would start.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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