A white Christmas in Hamilton is a ‘close call,’ climatologist says
Picture this: It's Christmas morning.
You wake up, check to see if Santa and his reindeer ate the cookies and carrots left out overnight, look under the tree and peer out the window.
Ideally, you'll see a fresh blanket of snow covering the lawn and trees, creating a picturesque Christmas morning fit for a postcard.
It's almost part of the tinsel, the turkey and the toys," said David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
This year, he's willing to bet a few loonies that it'll be a white Christmas," which, by definition, means at least two centimetres of snow lining the ground on Dec. 25.
But it's a close call," he said.
A few days have hit 15 C recently, but with temperatures as cold as -7 C coming up this week, any precipitation that falls will turn into snow.
On Saturday, 7.6 centimetres of snow fell in the city, and when the ground freezes, that snow is likely to stick around, depending on how much falls.
Christmas Eve has a 60 per cent chance of flurries or rain showers, according to Environment Canada, and Christmas Day has a promising 60 per cent chance of flurries.
Phillips said between two and 10 centimetres of snow is projected to fall along Highway 401 toward Ottawa - and likely two to four directly in Hamilton - which is a sufficient" amount to meet white Christmas standards.
But it's not enough for Christmas morning tobogganers, snowmobilers and skiers, he said. They'll still have to keep their equipment at bay for at least a few more weeks until heavy snowfalls touch down in the city and surrounding area.
Last year's Christmas was perfect," he said - not in the sense that the in-laws leave early," but that Hamilton had a Christmas card look" with 14 centimetres of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
It doesn't always happen in the city, he said, but everything was right last year."
Two years before that, the city was snow-free, and over the last decade, six Christmases were green and four were white, Phillips said.
Compared to 50 or 60 years ago, the chances of seeing snowflakes fall from the sky on Dec. 25 has decreased by about 10 per cent, he added.
With those odds, it may be wise to include a white Christmas" on your list of wishes for Santa to increase the chances.
If you're a betting person and hope and pray a little longer, you might get it," Phillips said. There's a good chance."
Alessia Passafiume is a reporter at The Spectator. apassafiume@thespec.com