NFL Week 16 round-robin moneyline parlay: Prime-time value and big 'dogs

Whether you watched the games or just took a spin through the box scores, you're probably wondering how neither the Chargers, Bears, or Seahawks won in Week 15. Such is the NFL in 2021 where you're at the mercy of officiating crews, fumble luck, and analytical variance. The best we can do is pinpoint value and hope the ball bounces our way.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, Week 10, and Week 11, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Titans +150

The Titans appear to have their full complement of outside weaponry, and even though they'd welcome back Derrick Henry in a heartbeat, the run game has not been the issue for the offense. D'Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols have filled the void, averaging 191 yards per game since aborting the Adrian Peterson experiment.

Turnovers have been the crux of Titan problems as they have 13 giveaways in their last four games. Tennessee had just 12 turnovers in their previous 10 games. The 49ers have six takeaways in their last three but before that, they were averaging just one per game.

Look for the Titans to be able to move the ball while defensively getting pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. Tennessee gets a big home win.

Panthers +350

While it was a troublesome matchup for Tampa Bay even before Tom Brady's top options went out of the game last Sunday night, the Bucs' offense doesn't strike the same fear in opponents. The Panthers can generate pressure and make life miserable for Brady for a second straight week.

Scoring will be more of a struggle for the Panthers, but things do get easier with Lavonte David also being unavailable, along with the usual assortment of defensive backs that funnel in and out of the Bucs' secondary. While I don't expect the Panthers to win, a Tampa loss is by no means a disaster to their standing. At +350 we'll add Carolina to the mix and see how well the Bucs adapt on the road, where they've struggled consistently this season even with available stars.

Vikings +130

I don't know why we're getting this good of a price with the Vikings at home.

Adam Thielen may be back, and that would take some of the pressure off of the Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson connection. The difference-maker will be Dalvin Cook and a Vikings defense that has historically had success against Matthew Stafford during his time with the Lions (8-13).

Bears +230

During the last three weeks of the NFL season, there's an opportunity to back an underdog anytime we can pinpoint two teams with nothing to play for. I wrote about the Bears in the upset of the week, as Justin Fields has provided a spark to the Chicago offense that is lacking in Seattle.

Dolphins +140

A Monday nighter in New Orleans used to be feared, but the Saints haven't shown anything at home in prime time this season. The Dolphins are the better football team, but we're getting a good price on them because the Saints beat the Buccaneers last week. If it weren't for the shutout win, this game would be closer to a pick'em. The Saints scored just nine points themselves, so I'm willing to fade them off of that victory. The Dolphins keep winning games against inferior competition, which might just be the case again on Monday.

Here are how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
TEN+MIN+CAR	+2600
TEN+MIN+CHI	+1900
TEN+MIN+MIA	+1300
TEN+CAR+CHI	+3600
TEN+CAR+MIA	+2600
TEN+CHI+MIA	+1900
MIN+CAR+CHI	+3500
MIN+CAR+MIA	+2500
MIN+CHI+MIA	+1800
CAR+CHI+MIA	+3500
TEN+MIN+CAR+CHI+MIA	+21000

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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