Why did Doug Ford flip-flop on closing schools? Here’s the inside story

What happened?

That question, more than any other, is being asked by frustrated parents, students, teachers, restaurateurs and other business owners in the wake of Premier Doug Ford's Omicron U-turn.

Last Thursday, at the behest of the premier, Dr. Kieran Moore, the chief medical officer of health, assured Ontarians that schools would reopen for in-person learning this week despite the surge in COVID-19 cases due to the contagious new variant.

But within hours of that announcement, Ford was inundated with calls from hospital CEOs, labour leaders, corporate presidents and public health officials, warning that Omicron was contributing to mass absenteeism, which threatened to disrupt the province's labour force.

By Monday - just four days after Moore's assurances and two days before schools were to reopen - the premier delivered the grim news that virtual learning would continue until at least Jan. 17 and restaurants, bars, gyms and many other businesses would be required to close indoor services until Jan. 26.

Those moves have, by Ford's own admission, left Ontarians feeling confused and angry.

Interviews with sources privy to the whirlwind of changing decisions suggest that things moved faster than most - even the advisory science table - had predicted.

The cold, hard reality is that we're not in charge. The virus is in charge," said one senior government official, who like other Progressive Conservative insiders interviewed for this story, spoke confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.

We're not doing this because we want to do it. We're doing this because we have to. We have a real problem on staffing (in health care and throughout the economy)."

On Sunday - after a phone call with Steini Brown, co-chair of the science table and dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health - Ford convened a virtual cabinet meeting.

Steini described our view that hospital capacity could be overwhelmed if we didn't limit contacts, but that we could protect the health-care system with measures that limited contacts," confirmed Robert Steiner, communications director of the science table, a panel of doctors, scientists, and epidemiologists that advises the government.

This view was largely in line with our previously released modelling - and was in line with what the premier and the minister announced at their press conference (Monday)," said Steiner, adding updated projections would be released soon.

Two weeks earlier, on Dec. 16, the science table had forecast that without additional circuit breakers" to drive down the spread of the coronavirus, there could be 600 COVID-19 patients in hospital intensive care units by Dec. 31, putting a strain on Ontario's health system. As it turned out, there were 205 people in ICUs that day and the modelling underestimated case counts, which were far higher than projected.

That's because the modelling - which Ford accepted and used to justify some restrictions- assumed Omicron is as virulent as the less-contagious Delta variant, though recent evidence suggests that's not the case.

We've never faced an enemy like Omicron, given how quickly it spreads," the premier said on Dec. 18, conceding at the time it was too soon to say if schools could reopen on schedule.

We need to do everything we can to slow its spread as we continue to dramatically ramp up capacity to get as many booster shots into arms as possible. Doing so is the best way to safeguard our hospital and intensive care units."

Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the science table, hailed those initial restrictions as absolutely going in the right direction."

But Omicron cases accelerated faster than anyone advising the government predicted - though a new study by Moore found the risk of hospitalization or death is 54 per cent lower than Delta.

We're bracing for impact. Based on a real-world experience here in Ontario, the evidence tells us that about one per cent of people who get Omicron will end up in the hospital," Ford told Ontarians Monday.

That was the same message he delivered in Sunday's hour-long cabinet meeting, which participants confide was far more focused than the two-day marathon discussion last April that led to the almost-immediately abandoned scheme for police spot checks and playground closures.

There was no one slamming down their phone and saying f- this' like (last spring) during Delta," said one insider.

The premier presented this to us as a fait accompli," the source said, adding that Ford provided no materials in support of his case. He said he had verbal briefings with Dr. Brown and Dr. Moore and they felt we had to do this and he agreed. We debated and it got fairly heated, but nothing like (the April confab)."

And that's because if we've learned one thing from the pandemic, it's that Ontarians want us to err on the side of caution."

But the one per cent Omicron hospitalization rate that Ford cited behind closed doors to cabinet and in public is higher than many estimates. Research in the U.K. and elsewhere, show hospitalization from Omicron is far lower than Delta with perhaps a 0.2 per cent rate of admission to hospital.

Even if it is 0.2 per cent, that's a lot when you have hundreds of thousands of Omicron cases swamping hospitals," said another senior government official, defending the premier's comments. We can't risk that."

Indeed, some around Ford had been urging action a week before the science table's Dec. 16 modelling.

We wanted to shut down school for kids six and under on Dec. 10 - the kids can miss secret Santa week when they're just playing and report cards have gone out - and have them come back a week later after Christmas (on Jan. 10)," said a third insider.

That would have given us a full month and we know we had 1,744 outbreaks in schools at the time."

But Ford, Moore and some advisers disagreed.

The (chief medical officer of health) said that wasn't necessary and the premier took that advice. We should have closed schools before Christmas."

That reluctance stems from the criticism Ford and Education Minister Stephen Lecce faced for earlier school shutdowns. Students in Ontario have missed more in-class learning over the 22 pandemic months than anywhere in North America.

At Sunday's meeting, ministers were told there was no choice but to act because schools might see 20 to 25 per cent of staff calling in sick due to Omicron.

It would have been chaos if one by one boards were shutting down schools due to absenteeism. If teachers or kids get sick and staffing shortages force more people into crowded classrooms, that's a lose-lose for everyone," said another source.

Against this alarming backdrop, there is some hope.

We know the vaccines work so we could see high schools reopening for fully vaccinated students on Jan. 17. With elementary schools, it might be a bit longer. Parents will be unhappy, but, again, we have to be safe," said a fifth source, noting more eligible children between the ages of five and 12 still need their shots.

On Monday, Moore underscored that things should improve by the end of the month.

Ontarians and all key decision makers should be monitoring the hospitalization rates that will ascend fairly rapidly over the coming weeks," the top doctor said.

We anticipate that it'll reach its maximum by the end of January and then start to descend. So we anticipate a very short, quick and rapid approach to this epidemic and impact on the health-care system," he said.

That is why these measures are timely, they're proportionate to the risk. They should diminish the burden on the health-care system. They should buy us time..."

With an election set for June 2, many Conservatives - including Ford - are mindful of the optics of a government announcing one thing on a Thursday then doing the opposite the following Monday.

I know this isn't the news anyone wants to hear, but with the new variant, the ground is shifting every single day," the premier said.

These decisions will disappoint people, they will confuse some people and they will anger some people. I understand all those reactions. As premier, these are the hardest decisions I make, but we follow the data and the fact is this Omicron spreads like wildfire."

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie