NFL Week 18 round-robin moneyline parlay: Questionable motivations, curious intentions

We had our choose-your-own-adventure edition of the moneyline parlay last week, and all roads pointed to the Steelers win on Monday night. The problem was, the other underdogs weren't willing to participate. The Falcons (+650), Texans (+500), and Panthers (+240) all had halftime leads before losing. The Vikings were toast when they ruled Kirk Cousins out, post-publishing. And the Giants, well ... never mind.

Things aren't moving any slower this week, as teams might be quietly trying to lose in some cases.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, Week 10, Week 11, and Week 16, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you'll connect on four separate parlays and be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Eagles +180

Sure, if given a choice, the Cowboys would prefer to win this game, but doing so doesn't guarantee them anything as far as improving their playoff positioning. Not holding any tiebreakers means Dallas needs some unlikely results to go its way to move out of the dreaded No. 4 seed. The NFL rescheduled this contest for Saturday because it's doubtful the game would be meaningful by the fourth quarter if played Sunday.

The debacle that ended the Eagles' season last year and Doug Pederson's tenure looms over any allegedly meaningless game in Philadelphia. I expect the Eagles to try their hardest to beat a division rival at home in a prime-time showcase, even if there's little to play for in the standings.

Bengals +200

What's the opposite of the irresistible force versus the immovable object? Because that's this game.

The Browns are 6-point favorites because Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon are out for this matchup. The Bengals would be fine losing this contest to set them up with a path to the AFC that would most likely involve taking on the Patriots and then heading to Tennessee to face the Titans. A win means a potential playoff path of playing the Colts and then going against the Chiefs on the road.

Here's the twist. Once the Browns found out they were knocked out of postseason contention, they put in a game plan that involved not running the football (the thing they do best) against one of the worst run defenses in the league in Pittsburgh last Monday night.

What if a pair of late-season losses means potentially getting a top-10 draft pick and next year's schedule including the Jaguars, Broncos, and Jets. On the flip side, what if winning those two games meant the No. 17 pick and matchups against the Colts, Chargers, and Patriots next season.

With neither team overly interested in winning this game and the Browns consistently disappointing backers all campaign, I have to try a +200 underdog to see how weird this might get.

Dolphins +230

I have not, at any point this week, understood the Dolphins as a significant underdog against the Patriots in this game. Nothing's indicated that this contest should be lined at over a field goal if it weren't for New England "wanting to win" and possibly topping the division.

This implies Miami is just going to roll over and allow that to happen. However, that doesn't seem like something Brian Flores' team would do.

Perhaps more importantly, the Patriots' desperation levels in the second half hinge on whether the Jets are competitive with the Bills. It's hard to imagine Bill Belichick not pulling Mac Jones and other key starters if Buffalo, a 16-point favorite, is blowing out New York. If that happens, the Dolphins would be content to send their fans home happy with a win.

Falcons +175

The upset of the week is an easy inclusion here as the value is too hard to pass up. The Saints need to win, and that's what makes this number outrageously high. At the same time, the Falcons should have no interest in their rival punching a playoff ticket on their home field.

49ers +180

This is also an easy addition since we know about Kyle Shanahan's rental space inside Sean McVay's head. The 49ers have won five straight over the Rams, and in many of those, their roster situation was in worse shape than this week's quarterback uncertainty.

Ideally, we find out who starts at quarterback for the 49ers. If it's Trey Lance, we get a moneyline of more than +200. However, it's San Francisco, so we know that we won't get to know anything. Reports indicate that Jimmy Garoppolo has been practicing, and teammate George Kittle recently said the quarterback "looks like himself."

Here are how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
PHI+CIN+MIA	+3000
PHI+CIN+ATL	+2300
PHI+CIN+SF	+2400
PHI+MIA+ATL	+2400
PHI+MIA+SF	+2550
PHI+ATL+SF	+2000
CIN+MIA+ATL	+2800
CIN+MIA+SF	+2900
CIN+ATL+SF	+2300
MIA+ATL+SF	+2400
PHI+CIN+MIA+ATL+SF	+22500

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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