NFL Week 18 best bets: Fade Colts, Saints in must-win spots

In many ways, betting the final week of the NFL season is the toughest. Priors mostly go out the window for teams who are either resting starters or playing for nothing. That said, it also leaves the door wide-open for value on teams in unconventional spots.

This was my favorite total bet of the week, and it might be my favorite bet overall, too. There simply isn't any reason for optimism either of these offenses will put up a high point total in a game that historically doesn't produce them.

This total dropped slightly with the official news that Tyler Huntley would make yet another start in place of Lamar Jackson, who will miss his fourth consecutive game with an ankle injury. Including the last three games, the Ravens have averaged 19.1 points over their last eight contests and topped 21 points just once.

The Steelers have bested that mark just once in the last six weeks, and it's becoming clearer by the game that Ben Roethlisberger is on his last legs. Both quarterbacks are due for a tough showing in a must-win spot for these defenses, which should steal the show on Sunday.

Pick: Under 41

Haven't we seen this story play out before? In 2020, the Colts entered the final week of the season needing a win against the Jaguars to clinch a playoff spot - and they were priced as gaudy 15.5-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, they won but didn't cover, as the line was inflated by what was at stake for Indy.

Betting on the motivation angle for potential playoff teams in the final week is often a fool's errand. Since 2011, teams needing a win to help secure a postseason berth are 13-19-2 ATS. Those favored by 14 or more points are a lousy 0-3 ATS, winning by an average of just 6.7 points.

Indianapolis has been in "must-win" mode all season but has never been priced as this big of a favorite, and it's won just three games by more than 15 points. This is a clear mismatch on paper, but it doesn't justify such a short price for the road side.

Pick: Jaguars +15.5

This line has been moving in the Falcons' favor all week despite the Saints having something to play for. As surprising as that sounds, it's the right move.

New Orleans has been wildly inconsistent and downright ineffective on offense since losing starter Jameis Winston in Week 8, scoring 17.6 points per game with a 3-6 record over that stretch. One of those losses came to these very Falcons, who tallied 27 points and 366 yards against the vaunted Saints defense.

I'm not expecting a repeat of that performance, but I'm far too skeptical of New Orleans' passing attack to buy into the motivation angle - which, as we mentioned earlier, has been an easy way to lose money over the past decade. Don't be surprised if Atlanta wins outright here.

Pick: Falcons +3.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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