Hamilton COVID hospitalizations forecast to rapidly rise
Daily COVID hospitalizations are forecast to double over the next few weeks in the best-case scenario for Hamilton.
The worst-case scenario sees the number of Hamiltonians admitted to hospital each day with COVID nearly quadruple as the fifth wave peaks between the middle and end of January.
The situation is extremely concerning," stated Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) in a COVID update to the community.
HHS is already seeing a surge" in COVID admissions that's putting enormous pressure" on its hospitals. The rise to 179 COVID patients Monday has been rapid from 95 on Dec. 31 and fewer than five on Dec. 1.
St. Joseph's has seen a similar increase to 77 patients Monday.
Together it adds up to 256 COVID patients in Hamilton's hospitals with 30 of them in the intensive care unit.
The hospital networks have been very concerned about what this wave holds for them and their ability to meet it," said Hamilton's medical officer of health, Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, at Monday's city briefing.
Public health reported that more than 10 Hamiltonians are now being admitted to hospital with COVID a day. The city hit that mark on Jan. 7 - a swift increase from four per day on Jan 3.
Scarsin Forecasting predicts the number will soar to 20 a day this month in the best-case scenario and 37 in the worst - far above anything ever seen before in the pandemic.
Our focus now is on blunting the current Omicron-driven wave to preserve our care capacity for everyone who needs it," epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the city's board of health Monday.
The numbers are for Hamilton patients only and don't include those from surrounding communities who also depend on the city's hospitals as regional providers of care. As a result, the load will be higher than what was presented.
Richardson said Hamilton's hospitals have started discussing load levelling" with others in Ontario West, which includes Burlington, Niagara, Brant, Haldimand and Norfolk. It means they are looking at ways to spread the COVID patients out between all of the area hospitals.
The omicron-driven wave has absolutely seen exponential growth that we have not seen before in the pandemic," Richardson told the board of health.
The sheer volume of cases far outweighs the lower risk of hospitalization compared to Delta.
Richardson said Omicron is roughly five times as transmissible so would need to be 20 per cent as severe just to be at the same number of hospitalizations as Delta, which severely strained the health-care system during the third wave. Instead, Omicron is roughly 50 per cent as severe and pushing the health-care system to the brink.
If it's only half as severe, it doesn't offset the degree of transmissibility," said Richardson. It's a real storm of issues that is really pushing the health system very, very hard."
Also unprecedented are the staff shortages caused by burnout, as well as the virus itself, with 759 Hamilton hospital workers self-isolating Monday.
Of those, 514 were at HHS - a significant jump from 353 on Dec. 31 and none on Dec. 1.
In addition, Hamilton's hospitals have a record 16 outbreaks - eight at each network - involving a total 183 cases.
HHS outlined the drastic measures it has taken to respond to the increasing pressure in its COVID update Jan. 7.
It ramped down all non-urgent surgeries and procedures, diagnostic imaging and testing, and ambulatory care.
We understand the angst that postponements and cancellations cause our patients and their families ... as we resort to these unfortunate but necessary measures," stated HHS.
The hospital network opened 70 unfunded beds and redeployed 175 staff and physicians.
It consolidated a number of areas of care at Juravinski Hospital to free up an additional 21 beds, which are already full.
It designated 16 beds for acute care at the Regional Rehabilitation Centre on the grounds of Hamilton General Hospital and maximized occupancy at the Satellite Health Facility at 150 King St. E.
HHS is expediting discharges and had to modify its approach to managing such a high number of outbreaks at once.
The forecasting suggests the worst is yet to come for the already overcrowded hospitals.
Admissions to intensive care for COVID are predicted to climb from the current two a day in Hamilton to three daily in the best-case scenario and eight in the worst.
The burden of illness won't be equal. Those age 20 to 59 are predicted to make up 45 per cent of new hospitalizations.
But it's seniors that Omicron will hit hardest. While those age 60 and older are forecast by Scarsin to make up only 12 per cent of cases, they are expected to account for 49 per cent of new hospital admissions and 86 per cent of deaths.
The city reported Monday that a senior in their 70s died of COVID. Of Hamilton's 429 COVID deaths, almost 97 per cent have been among those age 60 and older.
The vulnerability of seniors is why Hamilton public health is making fourth doses in congregate living a priority. The CF Lime Ridge vaccine clinic will move to one shift a day - from two shifts - starting Jan. 17 to free up staff to give out fourth doses.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com