‘Almost everything we buy will be affected’: About 12,000 Canadian truckers won’t be fully vaccinated before the deadline

With just days to go until a deadline imposed by governments on both sides of the border, thousands of Canadian truckers still aren't fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

That shortfall risks throwing a supply chain already hammered by the global pandemic into even more chaos, industry experts say.

Almost everything we buy will be affected somehow," said Fraser Johnson, a business management professor at Western University's Ivey Business School.

Manufacturers could face assembly line delays, retailers are facing emptier shelves and increased prices, and produce could end up spoiling if it gets stuck at the border, warned Johnson, one of Canada's foremost supply chain analysts.

It will definitely mean some empty shelves. Will we get through this? Yes. But will we notice it? Absolutely," said Johnson, adding that roughly $1.7 billion in goods crosses the Canada-U. S. border by truck every single day.

The head of the Canadian Trucking Alliance estimated that at least 12,000 Canadian truckers - 10 per cent of the total - who currently go back and forth across the border won't be fully vaccinated by the deadline. Truckers entering Canada must be fully vaccinated by Saturday, while truckers entering the U.S. face a Jan. 21 deadline.

Since the Canadian government announced its mandate in mid-November, there has been little change despite warnings that 12,000 Canadian truckers will no longer be able to make the crossing, said CTA president Stephen Laskowski.

We have had lots of conversations with the federal government, but no indication of a change in policy," said Laskowski, who'd like to see enforcement of the vaccine mandate delayed.

We need the government to work with our customers to find a date that allows them to have a smooth transition. We need to do it in a way that makes the transition as smooth as possible," said Laskowski, stressing that he's not against the mandate itself.

Look, we understand why the government is doing this. We're in favour of vaccines. We realize that it's not a question of if, it's a question of when. There are only a handful of countries around the world that don't have a mandate right now," said Laskowski.

Consumers can expect to pay a higher price for fruits and vegetables because of the reduced number of truckers, said Steve Bamford, president of Bamford Produce. Fewer truckers mean less produce crossing the border, said Bamford, a veteran produce wholesaler.

Any time you remove 10 to 20 per cent of drivers in their ability to cross the border, there will be a supply issue. ... Year over year, we're already paying a premium. This will just amplify that," said Bamford.

Canadian manufacturers are facing a double whammy, with supplies coming into Canada from the U.S., and finished products going in the other direction.

We're just sitting here with this deadline barrelling towards us. Everybody's worried," said Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

That worry is especially acute for smaller manufacturers that may get bumped down the priority list if trucking companies have to pick and choose which customers to service, Darby said.

The small and medium-sized businesses are the ones that have the least leverage," said Darby.

The global pandemic has changed the way manufacturers look at almost everything they do, said Darby, including once-unquestioned ideas such as just-in-time delivery.

What this entire pandemic has done is made everyone take a good, hard look at their supply chain," said Darby.

Retailers have already been facing a supply chain crunch. Taking thousands of truckers out of the mix will make it even worse, said Michelle Wasylyshen, spokesperson for the Retail Council of Canada.

Retailers are concerned with the rippling effect throughout the supply chain, especially in transportation, which is compounding the problem of labour shortages," said Wasylyshen. With the vaccine mandate for truck drivers coming into effect ... trucking associations have forecasted that a significant number of truck drivers will stop all cross-border travel, which (the retail council) fears will result in another spike in freight costs as well as further disruption to supply chains."