Wild-card round-robin parlay: A touchdown-scoring twist
We had a lot of fun with our weekly NFL betting lottery ticket. It helped that we had a sweep in Week 1 and five other cashing cards throughout the season. But there are only six games on the slate this weekend, so picking five 'dogs on the moneyline is a bit of a stretch.
Instead, we'll try something different in our search for a low-investment, high-reward ticket: using the anytime touchdown market to create a series of big-payout parlays.
How it worksWe parlay five anytime touchdowns together in 10 different three-leg parlays. Using every combination of a three-leg parlay is known as a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-leg parlays and one five-leg parlay, each for 0.1 units. If three players score, we'll likely double our money. If four score, we'll connect on four parlays and be very pleased with the return. If all five players score? We go diving in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.
Who to playDarren Waller +180
We'll start with a value play, which is often the case with tight ends. Waller missed a handful of games to end the season, then returned against the Chargers only to find Derwin James hounding him for much of the game. Waller will have an easier matchup against the Bengals and should be re-adjusted to the speed of the game. He should have more than one legitimate chance to score for the Raiders and kick off our gambit in a nice way Saturday.
Dawson Knox +210
We know about the weather, so when it comes to pass-catchers, we want players for whom teams will run plays in short yardage near the goal line. Knox is capable of catching a long one against the Patriots, but at the very least, the Bills will draw up some run option for Josh Allen and keep Knox in mind as an outlet.
Amari Cooper +150
We targeted a pair of 49ers tight ends to score in our 49ers-Cowboys prop preview, so we'll look to the other side for a value play here. Cooper is a nice price at +150, as Ezekiel Elliott and CeeDee Lamb have shorter odds. Dak Prescott trusts Cooper, and I like the quarterback's favorite target to score in a game that should see the Cowboys try to stretch the field.
Byron Pringle +260
There are questions around Tyreek Hill's foot and very short payouts on Travis Kelce and the Chiefs' running backs. Relying on the Steelers to score, meanwhile, has cost me good payouts on Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth. What's left is a juicy price on a receiver who plays roughly 70% of Kansas City's offensive snaps.
Kyler Murray +210
This spot almost went to Tyler Higbee, but a +210 payout on the Cardinals' star quarterback finding the end zone is too good to pass up. Murray can score from distance or through the read-option keeper near the goal line. Even if I expect the Rams to win and cover, I'll still try Murray here. I'll have a Higbee ticket, too, however, just in case.
Here's how the odds look:
| PLAYER | ODDS (Approx.) |
|---|---|
| Waller+Knox+Cooper | +3000 |
| Waller+Knox+Pringle | +3000 |
| Waller+Knox+Murray | +3000 |
| Waller+Cooper+Pringle | +2500 |
| Waller+Cooper+Murray | +2500 |
| Waller+Pringle+Murray | +3000 |
| Knox+Cooper+Pringle | +3000 |
| Knox+Cooper+Murray | +3000 |
| Knox+Pringle+Murray | +3500 |
| Cooper+Pringle+Murray | +2800 |
| Waller+Knox+Cooper+Pringle+Murray | +30000 |
Who are your five touchdown scorers for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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