Can you trust Burrow, Stafford in conference title debuts?

After one of the best weekends of playoff football we've ever seen, we'll be treated to more spectacle this weekend as two quarterbacks each make their first start in a conference championship game.

Neither is new to firsts this postseason. Joe Burrow has already led the Bengals to their first playoff win in 31 years and first AFC title game since 1988; Matthew Stafford famously won his first career playoff game in the wild-card round, then handed Tom Brady his first playoff loss since joining the Buccaneers two summers ago.

Both quarterbacks will make their first semifinal start Sunday, with the Rams (-3.5) hosting the 49ers and the Bengals (+7) facing the Chiefs. Neither signal-caller had won a postseason contest until two weeks ago, and both will be making their conference title debuts against former Super Bowl starters. Can bettors trust either to show up in the biggest games of their pro careers?

Burrow faces uphill battle

As evidenced by Sunday's epic duel in Kansas City, the AFC remains the conference of elite quarterback play - but it hasn't been friendly to newcomers.

Since the NFL changed its postseason format in 2002, 11 quarterbacks have reached the AFC title game for the first time. Not one managed to win his conference championship debut, with the group combining for an 0-11 record straight up and a 2-9 record against the spread - all while losing by an average of 13.2 points. Nine of them lost by at least nine points, a trend that would spell an ATS loss for the Bengals if it holds.

SEASON	QUARTERBACK	MATCHUP	RESULT	ATS	SU
2020	Josh Allen	Bills (+3) at Chiefs	24-38	L	L
2019	Ryan Tannehill	Titans (+7.5) at Chiefs	24-35	L	L
2018	Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs (-3) vs. Patriots	31-37	L	L
2017	Blake Bortles	Jaguars (+7.5) at Patriots	20-24	W	L
2014	Andrew Luck	Colts (+7) at Patriots	7-45	L	L
2009	Mark Sanchez	Jets (+8.5) at Colts	17-30	L	L
2008	Joe Flacco	Ravens (+6) at Steelers	14-23	L	L
2007	Philip Rivers	Chargers (+14.5) at Patriots	12-21	W	L
2005	Jake Plummer	Broncos (-3.5) vs. Steelers	17-34	L	L
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots	27-41	L	L
2003	Peyton Manning	Colts (+4) vs. Patriots	14-24	L	L

As shown by the results above, the caliber of quarterback has scarcely mattered on this stage. A year ago, Josh Allen was the MVP runner-up before wilting in the AFC title game; Peyton Manning (2003) and Patrick Mahomes (2018) both won MVP honors ahead of their losses.

It's not as if these 11 quarterbacks played above the results, either. They averaged just 227.7 yards in their semifinal debuts with a combined 14 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, five fumbles, and 26 sacks allowed. Only two of them completed more than 60% of their passes, and only Mahomes led his team to 30 points or more.

Burrow's inexperience in this spot is an added concern. Six of those 11 quarterbacks reached the AFC title game within their first three NFL seasons; they went 0-6 straight up/ATS with a -15.7 scoring differential, and all six turned the ball over at least once in those losses.

Of course, all 11 of those QBs were thwarted by Brady, Manning, Mahomes, or Ben Roethlisberger, who have combined to win 17 of the last 18 AFC championships. Those four have been particularly fierce against first-timers, posting a combined 9-2 ATS record on this stage compared to a 7-9 ATS record in all other semifinal spots.

That's bad news for Burrow, who will duel Mahomes on Sunday. The Bengals passer got the best of the Chiefs star in Week 17, but even that could be concerning: Mahomes is 5-2 ATS in playoff rematches - including 2-0 ATS this year - with both losses coming against Brady.

Stafford's path has promise

It's been an entirely different story in the NFC, where first-time starters are in vogue in conference title games - even without elite statistics to support them.

Nineteen quarterbacks have made their semifinal debuts in the last 20 years, though 10 of them have faced another such starter in that spot. Isolate the nine first-time starters who faced playoff veterans in the conference championship, and the results are stark:

SEASON	QUARTERBACK	MATCHUP	RESULT	ATS	SU
2019	Jimmy Garoppolo	49ers (-8.5) vs. Packers	37-20	W	W
2018	Jared Goff	Rams (+3) at Saints	26-23	W	W
2013	Russell Wilson	Seahawks (-4) vs. 49ers	23-17	W	W
2011	Alex Smith	49ers (-2) vs. Giants	17-20	L	L
2007	Eli Manning	Giants (+7) at Packers	23-20	W	W
2005	Matt Hasselbeck	Seahawks (-4) vs. Panthers	34-14	W	W
2004	Michael Vick	Falcons (+6) at Eagles	10-27	L	L
2003	Jake Delhomme	Panthers (+4.5) at Eagles	14-3	W	W
2002	Brad Johnson	Buccaneers (+3.5) at Eagles	27-10	W	W

These nine quarterbacks combined for a stellar 7-2 ATS/SU record in their first conference title starts, winning by 11 points per game in those seven victories. Surprisingly, they found success despite averaging a mere 194.6 yards with a conservative 8-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

It's not as if this crop of signal-callers hasn't faced its fair share of elite quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Brett Favre come to mind - but the NFC's top quarterbacks haven't been a buzzsaw like the AFC's quartet of future Hall of Famers. The nine passers listed above also benefitted from playing for superior teams, sheltering their inexperience behind a game-manager approach.

Four of the nine quarterbacks were favored in their semifinal debuts (3-1 ATS) despite facing more seasoned passers. That was largely because of defense, as the nine teams that deployed first-time starters in the conference title game allowed an average of 17.1 points. Only five of those QBs threw for more than 200 yards; all five won SU/ATS.

That could be the story again this weekend, with Stafford leading the favored Rams against the division-rival 49ers. Los Angeles' defense has struggled in two games versus San Francisco this season, but Stafford has been anything but a game-manager in his first two playoff wins. He's also going against Jimmy Garoppolo, who's among the least prolific passers to face an inexperienced starter in this spot.

Can you trust Burrow, Stafford?

There's always risk betting on a quarterback entering new territory in the postseason - especially against an opposing passer with Super Bowl experience. That said, Burrow and Stafford face dramatically different tests this weekend, with one catching points from a former MVP and the other favored against a familiar foe.

History suggests a much friendlier outlook for Stafford, who's surrounded by talent on a stacked team. Burrow, meanwhile, will likely need a Herculean effort to break Mahomes' stranglehold on the AFC.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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