Bengals-Chiefs player props: Mahomes looking for a reliable collaboration
We're one step away from the peak convergence of football and music with the halftime show of Super Bowl LVII. Of course, we've been feeling various vibes on our own since the middle of the regular season. For championship Sunday, we'll look to the undercard of the highly anticipated show that diehards and casual fans alike are looking forward to.
Mary J. Blige, the queen of hip-hop soul, is famous for groundbreaking collaborations of sound in the early '90s. Like Queen Mary and Method Man at the time, the Chiefs and Bengals are a surprising combination, with Kansas City widely expected to be here and Cincinnati likely still pinching themselves.
"You're All I Need To Get By"Our cornerstone player props have gone 5-4 this postseason, with a 1-1 split in Kansas City last week. When it comes to bankroll management, winning these should cover the two anytime touchdown bets we take a shot with. A win here is truly all we need to get by.
All Patrick Mahomes needs to get by this Sunday is Travis Kelce. In the Week 17 meeting in Cincinnati, the Bengals were pretty blatant in their defensive strategy, keeping safeties miles off the line of scrimmage. That resulted in Mahomes taking the short passes available - and a strange box score for the Chiefs. They were only able to complete one pass of at least 30 yards and ran the ball 20 times.
Mahomes targeted Kelce seven times, and that number should go up with preparation for the Bengals' double-high safety approach. That strategy worked "Just Fine" in the end - but not without long touchdown drives for the Chiefs in the first half.
Up until last week, the Bengals have been largely gashed by tight ends. In eight of their final 14 games, opponents targeted that position 10-17 times. Given the looks he should get on Sunday, Kelce's five catches for 25 yards can be improved upon quite easily. I expect him to threaten double-digit receptions as Mahomes patiently matriculates the ball down the field to his favorite target.
Pick: Kelce over 6.5 receptions (+115)
A TD that's definitely going to happenIt can sometimes be hard to figure out "What's the 411?" with the "Family Affair" that is the Chiefs' running back room, but I think we have a decent handle on how they're deploying their talent in the playoffs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is getting just enough carries to be dangerous, and his rushing yardage prop is one on which I'll play the over. He's also been involved around the goal line, even taking a shovel pass to the face last week against the Bills.
Per the Bengals' aforementioned defensive strategy, the Chiefs will likely run the ball more than usual - Darrel Williams had two scores from in close as the starter in the first meeting.
Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon gets carries to keep the defense honest, but his best usage will come in the short passing game. That may see him score through the air or get a goal-line carry if the Chiefs want to keep the same personnel on the field in a hurry-up situation. I want "No More Drama" when trying to guess which tailback will score since I think it's possible both do.
Pick:
- McKinnon anytime touchdown (+140)
- Edwards-Helaire anytime touchdown (+150)
We touched on the Bengals' struggles with tight ends, and we've looked at the Chiefs' alternative to Kelce in this space before. With Blake Bell, you "Can't Knock the Hustle" - he continues to be on the field around the end zone and should eventually get a target in close. We'd be devastated if we missed out on a Bell touchdown at 12-1. If Andy Reid is willing to let Bell run the option from the quarterback position, he obviously trusts him. Maybe that trust translates into a touchdown catch Sunday.
Pick: Bell anytime touchdown (+1200)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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