Super Bowl LVI MVP opening odds: Voter's Kupp of tea
The Super Bowl MVP market is up and refreshed now that we have an actual matchup. Pre-playoff favorites like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, along with juicier sleeper options like Deebo Samuel, have all fallen by the wayside. Predictably, what remains are the starting quarterbacks atop the board and not much in the way of surprising prices listed thereafter.
Here's a look at the opening odds for Super Bowl LVI MVP, courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook.
| PLAYER | MVP |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | +135 |
| Joe Burrow | +220 |
| Cooper Kupp | +600 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1400 |
| Cam Akers | +1500 |
| Aaron Donald | +1600 |
| Von Miller | +2000 |
| Joe Mixon | +2500 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +2500 |
| Tee Higgins | +3300 |
| Leonard Floyd | +4000 |
| C.J. Uzomah | +5000 |
| Kendall Blanton | +5000 |
| Darrell Henderson | +5000 |
| Van Jefferson | +5000 |
| Tyler Higbee | +5000 |
| Sony Michel | +5000 |
| Jalen Ramsey | +5000 |
| Tyler Boyd | +6600 |
| Logan Wilson | +6600 |
| Trey Hendrickson | +8000 |
| Drew Sample | +8000 |
| Evan McPherson | +10000 |
The Rams are -195 on the moneyline, which carries an implied win probability of 66%. At +135, Matthew Stafford is expected to win the MVP 42.6% of the time, creating a 23.4% gap where Los Angeles wins but he doesn't.
The Bengals are +160 on the moneyline, which is an implied win probability of 38.5%. At +220, Joe Burrow is expected to have a 31.3% chance to win MVP, creating a much smaller gap of 7.2% where Cincinnati wins and he doesn't.
Depending on your confidence in either side, it might be worth backing your team's quarterback rather than betting the moneyline or point spread. However, the notable difference in the probability gap between the L.A. moneyline and Stafford's MVP odds leads me to look at another Rams player for an early value bet.
Bet: Cooper Kupp (+600)Normally a bet on a wide receiver to win MVP can be a fool's errand since the quarterback throwing to the pass-catcher often gets the credit. However, this is a rare instance where there's been a year's worth of buildup in the media about Kupp's candidacy for regular-season MVP.
With Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers vanquished but voting already complete, Kupp is receiving goodwill in hindsight. There's one thing that can rectify Kupp getting overlooked - a Super Bowl MVP vote.
Statistically, Kupp has all the numbers to indicate potential for nine or 10 catches and approximately 130 yards. Based on the four receivers who have won the award in the last 20 years (Julian Edelman, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Deion Branch), that's what Kupp would need for consideration.
At +600, this is priced like there's just a 14% chance that Kupp wins the award, and using the Rams' moneyline, it implies he wins the MVP just 21% of the time if the Rams win. That's too low, especially against the Bengals' secondary, which doesn't present a particularly difficult challenge.
Value: Evan McPherson (+10000)Don't laugh. This isn't the Stanley Cup Playoffs or even the NBA Finals, where multiple games are considered for the MVP. It's a one-off, and quite literally, anything can happen. Who would have been named MVP in the Bengals' divisional-round win against the Titans? Wouldn't it have been McPherson? In fact, that performance and the shine the kicker received afterward will actually put him on voters' radar should the Super Bowl be a low-scoring contest that, like the last six(!) playoff games, comes down to a kick.
In an era when fourth-down decisions are scrutinized, the Bengals opting to kick (and make) long field goals could be a difference-maker. This will be especially true if the Rams fail on fourth-down because of a lack of confidence in their kicker, who has missed a pair of long attempts in their last two games.
Of the options listed at 100-1 and longer, none are worth mentioning individually except this one thanks to that clutch kicking game in Tennessee.
Fade: Aaron Donald (+1600)While there are players on the board who have a zero percent chance of winning MVP, once we get to 50-1, I can't rule anyone out unless they're not going to play.
Meanwhile, Donald could very well ruin the Bengals' chances to win this game, but since that rarely leads him to exciting stats like tackles, fumbles, or interceptions, this price is just too short. The Rams' star defensive lineman is always the best player on the field but rarely gets credit for it, so at just 16-1 in a one-game scenario, I'll have to pass.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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