Super Bowl 1st TD scorer odds: How to bet the popular market
For those who like a card of Super Bowl prop bets longer than Sean McVay's offensive call sheet, first touchdown scorer bets are decided shortly after the coin toss.
Like any bet made on Super Bowl Sunday, you'll want to pace yourself with this market. Unlike the "anytime touchdown" and "last touchdown scorer" markets, you only get one chance.
It's also difficult to predict. Naturally, the first touchdown comes early in the game, often when offensive coordinators and quarterbacks have a script of plays designed to get everyone involved before they turn to go-to guys and take advantage of key mismatches in the second half.
What do C.J. Uzomah, Dawson Knox, Giovani Bernard, Elijah Mitchell, T.J. Watt, Odell Beckham Jr., Derrick Henry, A.J. Dillon, Kendall Blanton, Devin Singletary, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp have in common? Aside from being the first touchdown scorers in each of the 12 playoff games, nothing. There are players from all positions in that group (including a defensive one), and of varying statures.
As we look at the first touchdown scorer odds, you can see there are literal comparisons in Kupp and Beckham, and figurative ones for Dillon and Blanton, with odds for second-string running backs and tight ends.
1st TD scorer odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | +460 |
| Joe Mixon | +600 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +750 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | +800 |
| Cam Akers | +800 |
| Tee Higgins | +1000 |
| Van Jefferson | +1400 |
| Tyler Boyd | +1400 |
| Sony Michel | +1500 |
| Any other Ram | +1500 |
| Tyler Higbee | +1600 |
| Kendall Blanton | +1700 |
| Any other Bengal | +2000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2400 |
| C.J. Uzomah | +2500 |
| Drew Sample | +2500 |
| Darrell Henderson | +3300 |
| Samaje Perine | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +4500 |
| Chris Evans | +5500 |
| Brycen Hopkins | +5500 |
| Ben Skowronek | +5500 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | +6600 |
| Brandon Powell | +8000 |
| Mike Thomas | +9000 |
| Trent Taylor | +10000 |
| Stanley Morgan | +10000 |
| Jake Funk | +12000 |
Quarterback is the only position yet to cash in this market in the playoffs. When looking for long shots, our first criterion is being on the field near the end zone, and obviously, both Joe Burrow (+2400) and Matthew Stafford (+4500) will be. They've also both scored this season.
As for the other long shots, Samaje Perine (+4000) scored in the AFC Championship, while Ben Skowronek (+5500) had a long pass fall through his hands in the end zone in the NFC title game.
While we previously discussed the higher probability of second-tier options getting the first score, this is the Super Bowl, so targeting top weapons right from the kickoff is probably the best practice. With Joe Mixon (+600) the most reliable option in close, and passes to Cooper Kupp (+450) often looking as easy as a handoff, these two are the best bets to not regret how you allocated your capital.
If I was to deploy one unit across the first touchdown scorer market, looking to create a better-than-even-money bet, here's how I'd do it.
| PLAYER | ODDS | UNIT VALUE | PAYOUT | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kupp | +450 | .4 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| Mixon | +600 | .35 | 2.1 | +1.45 |
| Burrow | +2400 | .10 | 2.4 | +1.50 |
| Perine | +4000 | .05 | 2.0 | +1.05 |
| Stafford | +4500 | .05 | 2.25 | +1.20 |
| Skowronek | +5500 | .05 | 2.75 | +1.80 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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