Groundhog Day's Spring Predictions No Better Than Chance

A lighthearted study of spring flowers' blooming times confirms that groundhog soothsaying is essentially a cute, furry coin flip. From a report: The idea behind Groundhog Day is as simple as it is eccentric. Every February 2 -- the halfway point between the winter solstice and spring equinox -- a bleary-eyed groundhog is hoisted from its burrow into the daylight in towns across the United States and Canada. If its human handler proclaims that the rodent sees its shadow (as Punxsutawney Phil did this year), then six more weeks of winter await; if it doesn't, spring will come early -- or so the tradition goes. Each year, the date's approach is met with gleeful anticipation and sometimes a rewatching of the movie that made the day globally famous. Each year, the groundhogs' "proclamations" are reported with mock seriousness. The occasional tongue-in-cheek assertion to the contrary -- for example, General Beauregard Lee from Jackson, Georgia, self-reports an accuracy rate of 99 percent -- few would make the case for groundhog divination as a substitute for long-range meteorology. To verify whether groundhogs might be weather soothsayers, a team of researchers from Lakehead University in Ontario, Canada, decided to take a cold, hard look at the evidence. It was, admits lead author Alex Ross, a project that was born in the campus bar ("There were many conversations over many beers," he confesses to National Geographic), and given extra impetus by the boredom of a pandemic. But the result, which appeared in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society, is unquestionably the most comprehensive statistical analysis yet published of the accuracy of groundhog predictive abilities. [...] Not all groundhogs had equal forecasting powers. Punxsutawney Phil's predictions were correct 52 times out of 100, while three mascots -- Essex Ed from Essex, Connecticut; Chuckles from Manchester, Connecticut; and Stonewall Jackson from Wantage, New Jersey -- scored correctly more than 70 percent of the time. Conversely, Buckeye Chuck from Marion, Ohio; Dunkirk Dave (Dunkirk, New York); and Holland Huckleberry (Holland, Ohio) each had a less than 30 percent success rate. Punxsutawney Phil and Ontario's Wiarton Willie were the only groundhogs with more than 50 years of predictions on record. Of the newcomers, the worst performer was probably Winnipeg Willow, who made only four predictions, was wrong on three of them, and predicted a late spring in a year when it arrived 38 days earlier than average. "Even if certain groundhogs can occasionally predict the onset of spring better than others," the authors write, "there appears to be no clear prophet among the group evaluated here."

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