Super Bowl LVI: Why the shortest TD prop is the best value on the board
This year's Super Bowl matchup between the Rams and Bengals profiles as a dream for prop over bettors, with two aggressive quarterbacks, elite downfield receiving threats, and creative head coaches. That said, there's one under bet that has been a cash cow in the big game - and the market is woefully slow to catch on.
When we broke down the shortest touchdown prop ahead of last year's Super Bowl, "under 1.5 yards" was priced around -160. This year, the under is dealing anywhere from -125 to -155, which would indicate a hit rate between 55% to 60% to return a profit.
Given what we've seen in previous Super Bowls, that's a screaming value. Here's a look at the shortest touchdown for every title game since 1990:
| SUPER BOWL (YEAR) | TD LENGTH | PLAYER | PLAY TYPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV (2021) | 1 | Antonio Brown | Receiving |
| LIV (2020) | 1 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| LIII (2019) | 2 | Sony Michel | Rushing |
| LII (2018) | 1 | Nick Foles | Receiving |
| LI (2017) | 1 | James White | Rushing |
| 50 (2016) | 1 | Jonathan Stewart | Rushing |
| XLIX (2015) | 3 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLVIII (2014) | 1 | Marshawn Lynch | Rushing |
| XLVII (2013) | 1 | Dennis Pitta | Receiving |
| XLVI (2012) | 2 | Victor Cruz | Receiving |
| XLV (2011) | 8 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLIV (2010) | 2 | Jeremy Shockey | Receiving |
| XLIII (2009) | 1 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLII (2008) | 1 | Laurence Maroney | Rushing |
| XLI (2007) | 1 | Dominic Rhodes | Rushing |
| XL (2006) | 1 | Ben Roethlisberger | Rushing |
| XXXIX (2005) | 2 | Multiple (x2) | Both |
| XXXVIII (2004) | 1 | Mike Vrabel | Receiving |
| XXXVII (2003) | 2 | Mike Alstott | Rushing |
| XXXVI (2002) | 2 | Kurt Warner | Rushing |
| XXXV (2001) | 3 | Jamal Lewis | Rushing |
| XXXIV (2000) | 1 | Eddie George | Rushing |
| XXXIII (1999) | 1 | Howard Griffith (x2) | Rushing |
| XXXII (1998) | 1 | Multiple (x4) | Rushing |
| XXXI (1997) | 1 | Keith Byars | Receiving |
| XXX (1996) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXIX (1995) | 1 | Natrone Means | Rushing |
| XXVIII (1994) | 1 | Emmitt Smith | Rushing |
| XXVII (1993) | 2 | Multiple (x2) | Both |
| XXVI (1992) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXV (1991) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXIV (1990) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
Notice a trend? The shortest touchdown in the Super Bowl has been exactly one yard in 22 of the last 32 years, including five of the last six - the lone outlier coming from two yards out. The larger sample boasts a hit rate of 68.8%, which suggests a market price of roughly -220 based on those results.
The current market is well below that, underscoring just how profitable this prop has been over the last three decades. Even if you extended it across the entire 55-year history of the Super Bowl, "under 1.5" would have cashed 60% of the time with a total of 51 such touchdowns. That's enough for the under to break even at -150, while better prices are widely available as of Wednesday afternoon.
Entering this year's title game, the Rams have either scored or allowed a touchdown shorter than 1.5 yards in 13 of 20 games (65%), with four of those featuring a 2-yard score. The Bengals have gone four games without a short TD but had scored or allowed one in 10 of their previous 16 contests (62.5%), including three games with multiple such scores in the last 10 weeks.
Don't let these two passing offenses scare you away from this prop, either. Of the last 12 Super Bowls to feature a goal-line touchdown, six of them saw a short score through the air, while two TDs came via a quarterback rush. So even if you fire off an array of over bets this year, consider the under bet that has consistently cashed in this spot before the market catches up.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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