Super Bowl LVI Rams rushing props: Aching over Akers' overs

"The Rams' rushing props ..."

"Yes!"

That wasn't just my reaction to this assignment of writing about the betting market for the Rams' ground game - it was also my response under the assumption the sentence concluded with "over?"

I wrote on Feb. 2 about how I'd look to grab Cam Akers over 64.5 rushing yards. This was in case the market jumped at the chance to take the Rams' primary tailback against a run defense that's struggled to make up for the loss of defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.

Obviously, when it comes to the Rams' run game, that's where it begins and ends for me. However, if you don't want to play the long game with Akers, here are three other ways to back him in Super Bowl LVI, along with two more bets on the Rams' potential success running the ball against the Bengals.

Akers

• Over 28.5 first-half rushing yards
• Longest rush over 13.5 yards
• More rushing yards than Joe Mixon (-118)

Are you worried Akers' shoulder might act up? Why not just play him in the first half at less than half of his expected game total?

In betting Akers' first-half yardage, you're limiting the chance that he gets hurt, or that the game script doesn't favor the Rams' run game after halftime. In turn, if the Rams try to salt away a lead late, they may turn to Sony Michel for the majority of fourth-quarter carries given Akers' fumble late against the Buccaneers in the divisional round.

With the Bengals allowing 5.9 yards per carry in the playoffs, Akers would clear 28.5 with just six carries - even if he's able to damage Cincinnati for just five yards per rush.

Akers might not need that many carries. Since returning from his Achilles injury, he's shown a burst that's only been stifled by the 49ers and Bucs - two of the NFL's top run defenses. That explosiveness should be rewarded against the Bengals, who gave up 14-yard rushes to both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon in the AFC Championship Game. They also allowed a 45-yard run to D'Onta Foreman a week earlier and a 35-yarder to Josh Jacobs the week before that.

I wrote here about the edge we might have on the lack of a long Joe Mixon rush. He could accumulate enough volume to get over his 62.5 rushing total - although the Rams' defense won't allow him to surpass that number in a big way.

With Akers lined a couple yards higher - and our interest in the over - why not back him in a matchup here, with the assumption that Mixon could be held below the projected rushing yards?

Michel over 17.5 rush yards, Matthew Stafford under 5.5 rush yards

I expect the game to play out in a way that's relatively comfortable for Stafford. If that's the case, there'll be more than enough handoffs to go around, especially late in the game. That should be enough for Michel to get over this modest yardage total.

If Stafford hands the ball off often, then he won't be panicked in the passing game and won't need to scramble. In the rare event he holds the ball in the pocket for too long, his lack of mobility will prevent him from getting a decent-sized gain. Of course, with his team favored, there's also some late-game leeway with the possibility that Stafford takes a knee (or three) to run the clock out on a Super Bowl victory.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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